PREDICTIONS â 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute

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APPENDIX C AIRWAYS TUNNEL THROUGH THE ECONOMIC RECESSION APPENDIX FIGURE 9.2 In a simplified presentation of Figure 9.2 we have added here examples of the rare “tunneling through” process that continues growing unaffected beyond the period of recession. On the first wave it was canal construction in Russia that continued growing. On the present wave, besides the airways shown, also computer innovation, natural gas pipelines, nuclear power stations, and pollution abatement tunnel through. The figure is adapted from Figure 9.2 in the text. ∗ ∗ The data come mostly from Arnulf Grubler, The Rise and Fall of Transport Infrastructures, (Heidelberg: Physica-Verlag, 1990). 313
APPENDIX C Annual registrations 6,000,000 THE JAPAN CAR MARKET WAS FILLED IN TWO STAGES 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 APPENDIX FIGURE 10.1 Data and S-curve fits for new car registrations in Japan. The first curve (solid line) is based on data only up to 1976. The second curve (intermittent line) represents recent data (white dots). ∗ ∗ The first half of this graph (up to 1976) was first published by Cesare Marchetti, in “The Automobile in a System Context: The Past 80 Years and the Next 20 Years,” Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol. 23 (1983): 3-23. Copyright 1983 by Elsevier Science Publishing Co., Inc. Reprinted by permission of the publisher. 314
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PREDICTIONS - 10 Years Later Ten ye
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Copyright © 2002 by Theodore Modis
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CONTENTS Going West 53 Mesopotamia,
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CONTENTS 10. IF I CAN, I WANT 225 W
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PREFACE This book is about seeing t
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PROLOGUE The fisherman starting his
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PROLOGUE analogy between natural la
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PROLOGUE animal population and foll
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PROLOGUE stead; and those who belie
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1 Science and Foretelling A barman
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING prices,
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING the futu
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING Safety i
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING But exam
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING programm
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING terpreta
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING On the o
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING terms of
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING THE LAW
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING resolved
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING by hard
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2 Needles in a Haystack HOW MUCH OR
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK able to fi
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK LEARNING F
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK Intel’s
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK looks like
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK documentat
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK MESOPOTAMI
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK derstandin
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3. INANIMATE PRODUCTION LIKE ANIMAT
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4. THE RISE AND FALL OF CREATIVITY
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5 Good Guys and Bad Guys Compete th
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5. GOOD GUYS AND BAD GUYS COMPETE T
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6 A Hard Fact of Life Natural growt
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE avoid wrong
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE one substitu
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE place in a n
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE DETERGENTS S
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE The percenta
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE During the l
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE Another inno
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE replacement.
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE soldiers opp
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE takes place
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7. COMPETITION IS THE CREATOR AND T
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT consumption d
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT compare the d
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT seems to puls
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT spikes stand
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT Marchetti fit
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT the predicted
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT according to
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT It is equally
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT Finally, ther
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT Ten Years Lat
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT having the th
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT The number fi
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9. REACHING THE CEILING EVERYWHERE
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Ten Years Later 9. REACHING THE CEI
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Ten Years Later 9. REACHING THE CEI
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10 If I Can, I Want Logistic functi
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT ability become
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT Christopher Co
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT The search for
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT look like an S
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT producing chao
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT First commerci
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT In addition to
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT Between two su
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT The state depi
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT to sustain one
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY announced i
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY The “natu
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY In 1975, as
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY The country
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY feedback me
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY States, rec
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY in 1991 pro
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY least four
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Page 271 and 272: EPILOGUE • • • We are in Cent
Page 273 and 274: EPILOGUE Fads and media stories abo
Page 275 and 276: APPENDICES 273
Page 277 and 278: APPENDIX A The Predator-Prey Equati
Page 279 and 280: APPENDIX A the two varieties will b
Page 281 and 282: APPENDIX A By assigning weights to
Page 283 and 284: APPENDIX B As an example, let us co
Page 285 and 286: APPENDIX C Additional Figures THE N
Page 287 and 288: APPENDIX C POPULATIONS OF CARS GROW
Page 289 and 290: APPENDIX C RAILWAY NETWORKS GROW LI
Page 291 and 292: APPENDIX C GOTHIC CATHEDRALS APPEND
Page 293 and 294: APPENDIX C OIL PRODUCTION AND DISCO
Page 295 and 296: APPENDIX C ERNEST HEMINGWAY (1899-1
Page 297 and 298: APPENDIX C THE BIRTH RATE OF AMERIC
Page 299 and 300: APPENDIX C 296
Page 301 and 302: APPENDIX C WORLD WAR II FAVORED TUB
Page 303 and 304: APPENDIX C THE EXIT OF STEAM ENGINE
Page 305 and 306: APPENDIX C 302
Page 307 and 308: APPENDIX C THE DESTRUCTION OF THRES
Page 309 and 310: APPENDIX C WARS MAY INTERFERE WITH
Page 311 and 312: APPENDIX C COMPETITION BETWEEN TRAN
Page 313 and 314: APPENDIX C ANNUAL ENERGY CONSUMPTIO
Page 315: APPENDIX C THE GROWTH OF AIR TRAFFI
Page 319 and 320: APPENDIX C POPULARIZED DEATHS HAVE
Page 322 and 323: NOTES AND SOURCES Prologue 1. Donel
Page 324 and 325: NOTES AND SOURCES the Law Followed
Page 326 and 327: NOTES AND SOURCES 4. For examples s
Page 328 and 329: NOTES AND SOURCES bile Road to Tech
Page 330 and 331: NOTES AND SOURCES 2. For a brief de
Page 332: NOTES AND SOURCES Appendix B: Expec
Page 335 and 336: ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Bagwell, my initia
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PREDICTIONS â 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute