PREDICTIONS – 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute

APPENDIX C
WARS MAY INTERFERE WITH NATURAL SUBSTITUTIONS
APPENDIX FIGURE 6.6 Three replacements in the United States published by
J. C. Fisher and R. H. Pry in 1971. The data show ratios of amounts consumed.
The logarithmic scale brings out the straight-line character of the
substitutions. The only significant deviation from a natural path is observed
for the production of synthetic rubber during World War II. ∗ The solid-back
points show recent data.
∗ Adapted from a graph by j. C. Fisher and R. H. Pry in “A Simple Substitution Model
of Technological Change,” Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol. 3
(1971): 75-88. Copyright 1988 by Elsevier Science Publishing Co., Inc. Reprinted
by permission of the publisher.
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