PREDICTIONS – 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute

NOTES AND SOURCES
2. For a brief description see Appendix A. For more details see reference therein
and ultimately Vito Volterra, Lecons sur la théorie mathématique de la
lutte pour la vie, (Paris: Jacques Gabay, 1931).
3. D. A. MacLuich, “University of Toronto Studies,” Biological Science, vol.
43 (1937).
4. Elliott W. Montroll and Wade W. Badger, Introduction to Quantitative Aspects
of Social Phenomena, (New York: Gordon and Breach Science
Publishers, 1974), pp 33-34.
5. See note 4 above, pp. 129–30.
6. H.O. Peitgen and P.H. Richter, The Beauty of Fractals (Berlin and Heidelberg:
Springer-Verlag, 1986).
7. P. F. Verhulst, “Recherches Mathématiques sur la loi d’Accroissement de la
Population,” Nouveaux Memoires de l’Académie Royale des Sciences et des
Belles-Lettres de Bruxelles , vol. 18, (1845): 1–40.
8. James Gleick, Chaos, (New York: Viking, 1988).
9. See note 4 above, p. 33.
Chapter Eleven: Forecasting Destiny
1. The remaining of this chapter is based on Marchetti’s ideas about energy,
society, and free will. It draws from two of his works: “Energy Systems—
the Broader Context,” Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol.
14, (1989): 191-203, and “On Society and Nuclear Energy”, report EUR
12675 EN, 1990, Commission of the European Communities, Luxemburg.
2. The first example on U.K. coal production was mentioned by Cesare
Marchetti in his article “Fifty-Year Pulsation in Human Affairs, Analysis of
Some Physical Indicators,” Futures, vol. 17, no. 3, (1986): 376–88. The
second example was mentioned in “Energy Systems—The Broader Context”;
see note 1 above.
3. A different graph with partial data was originally used by Cesare Marchetti to
illustrate these ideas in the article entitled “Energy Systems—the Broader
Context”; see note 1 above.
4. Cesare Marchetti, “On Society and Nuclear Energy,” see note 1 above.
5. A. Mazur, “The Journalists and Technology: Reporting about Love Canal
and Three Mile Island,” Minerva, vol. 22, no. 1: 45-66, as cited by Cesare
Marchetti in “On Society and Nuclear Energy,” see note 1 above.
6. These arguments have been put forward by Cesare Marchetti in “On Society
and Nuclear Energy,” see note 1 above.
7. J. Weingart, “The Helios Strategy,” Technological Forecasting and Social
Change, vol.12, no. 4 (1978).
327