PREDICTIONS â 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute

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APPENDIX B TABLE II Expected uncertainties on M fitted from data covering the range 1 percent to 50 percent of the total S-curve. The confidence level is marked vertically, while the error on the historical data points is marked horizontally. All numbers are in percentages. 1 5 10 15 20 25 70 1.2 5.1 11 17 23 23 75 1.4 5.5 12 19 26 32 80 1.8 6.4 14 22 29 36 85 2.1 7.3 16 25 36 42 90 2.6 8.8 18 29 42 48 95 3.1 11.0 21 39 56 66 99 4.6 22.0 30 55 150 110 TABLE III Expected uncertainties on M fitted from data covering the range 1 percent to 80 percent of the total S-curve. The confidence level is marked vertically, while the error on the historical data points is marked horizontally. All numbers are in percentages. 1 5 10 15 20 25 70 0.5 1.9 3.9 5.1 8.1 8.9 75 0.6 2.1 4.4 5.5 9.0 9.6 80 0.7 2.4 4.8 6.2 9.8 11.0 85 0.8 2.8 5.5 7.1 12.0 13.0 90 1.1 3.3 6.3 9.1 13.0 16.0 95 1.3 4.0 7.6 11.0 16.0 18.0 99 2.2 5.6 9.1 15.0 21.0 31.0 282
APPENDIX C Additional Figures THE NORMAL DISTRIBUTION IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE NATURAL LIFE CYCLE LIFE CYCLE NORMAL DISTRIBUTION APPENDIX FIGURE 1.1 Comparison of the Gaussian distribution—usually referred to as normal—and a natural life cycle. 283
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PREDICTIONS - 10 Years Later Ten ye
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Copyright © 2002 by Theodore Modis
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CONTENTS Going West 53 Mesopotamia,
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CONTENTS 10. IF I CAN, I WANT 225 W
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PREFACE This book is about seeing t
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PROLOGUE The fisherman starting his
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PROLOGUE analogy between natural la
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PROLOGUE animal population and foll
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PROLOGUE stead; and those who belie
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1 Science and Foretelling A barman
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING prices,
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING the futu
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING Safety i
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING But exam
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING programm
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING terpreta
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING On the o
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING terms of
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING THE LAW
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING resolved
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING by hard
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2 Needles in a Haystack HOW MUCH OR
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK able to fi
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK LEARNING F
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK Intel’s
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK looks like
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK documentat
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK MESOPOTAMI
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK derstandin
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3. INANIMATE PRODUCTION LIKE ANIMAT
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4. THE RISE AND FALL OF CREATIVITY
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5 Good Guys and Bad Guys Compete th
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5. GOOD GUYS AND BAD GUYS COMPETE T
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6 A Hard Fact of Life Natural growt
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE avoid wrong
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE one substitu
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE place in a n
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE DETERGENTS S
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE The percenta
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE During the l
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE Another inno
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE replacement.
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE soldiers opp
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE takes place
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7. COMPETITION IS THE CREATOR AND T
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT consumption d
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT compare the d
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT seems to puls
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT spikes stand
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT Marchetti fit
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT the predicted
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT according to
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT It is equally
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT Finally, ther
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT Ten Years Lat
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT having the th
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT The number fi
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9. REACHING THE CEILING EVERYWHERE
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Ten Years Later 9. REACHING THE CEI
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Ten Years Later 9. REACHING THE CEI
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10 If I Can, I Want Logistic functi
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT ability become
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT Christopher Co
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Page 271 and 272: EPILOGUE • • • We are in Cent
Page 273 and 274: EPILOGUE Fads and media stories abo
Page 275 and 276: APPENDICES 273
Page 277 and 278: APPENDIX A The Predator-Prey Equati
Page 279 and 280: APPENDIX A the two varieties will b
Page 281 and 282: APPENDIX A By assigning weights to
Page 283: APPENDIX B As an example, let us co
Page 287 and 288: APPENDIX C POPULATIONS OF CARS GROW
Page 289 and 290: APPENDIX C RAILWAY NETWORKS GROW LI
Page 291 and 292: APPENDIX C GOTHIC CATHEDRALS APPEND
Page 293 and 294: APPENDIX C OIL PRODUCTION AND DISCO
Page 295 and 296: APPENDIX C ERNEST HEMINGWAY (1899-1
Page 297 and 298: APPENDIX C THE BIRTH RATE OF AMERIC
Page 299 and 300: APPENDIX C 296
Page 301 and 302: APPENDIX C WORLD WAR II FAVORED TUB
Page 303 and 304: APPENDIX C THE EXIT OF STEAM ENGINE
Page 305 and 306: APPENDIX C 302
Page 307 and 308: APPENDIX C THE DESTRUCTION OF THRES
Page 309 and 310: APPENDIX C WARS MAY INTERFERE WITH
Page 311 and 312: APPENDIX C COMPETITION BETWEEN TRAN
Page 313 and 314: APPENDIX C ANNUAL ENERGY CONSUMPTIO
Page 315 and 316: APPENDIX C THE GROWTH OF AIR TRAFFI
Page 317 and 318: APPENDIX C Annual registrations 6,0
Page 319 and 320: APPENDIX C POPULARIZED DEATHS HAVE
Page 322 and 323: NOTES AND SOURCES Prologue 1. Donel
Page 324 and 325: NOTES AND SOURCES the Law Followed
Page 326 and 327: NOTES AND SOURCES 4. For examples s
Page 328 and 329: NOTES AND SOURCES bile Road to Tech
Page 330 and 331: NOTES AND SOURCES 2. For a brief de
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Bagwell, my initia
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PREDICTIONS â 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute