PREDICTIONS – 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute

CONTENTS
PREFACE 11
PROLOGUE 13
Spicy Talk and a Stimulating Meal 15
1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING 21
Invariants 26
Safety in Cars 27
Humans versus Machines 30
Do Animals All Die at the Same Age? 33
The Bell-Shaped Curve of the Life Cycle 36
The S-Curve of Cumulative Growth 37
The Law of Natural Growth 39
Controls on Rabbit Populations 40
Gauss for Statistics was Like Bach for Music—an Ingenious Forger 42
2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK 45
How Much Order Is There in “Random” Discoveries? 45
Learning From Success 49
Could You Take Aim at an Apple on Your Son’s Head? 49
A Real Case 50
The Industry Learning Curve 52
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