PREDICTIONS – 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute

NOTES AND SOURCES
4. For examples see Chapter One in Theodore Modis, Conquering Uncertainty,
(New York: McGraw-Hill, 1998).
5. Cited by Cesare Marchetti in “On Society and Nuclear Energy”, report EUR
12675 EN, 1990, Commission of the European Communities, Luxemburg.
6. E. J. Hobsbawm and G. Rude, Captain Swing (New York: Pantheon Books,
1968).
Chapter Seven: “Competition Is the Creator and the Regulator”
1. K. Axelos, Héraclite et la philosophie, (Paris: Les Éditions de Minuit, 1962).
2. Richard N. Foster, Innovation: The Attacker’s Advantage, (London: Macmillan,
1986).
3. Marc Van der Erve, The Power of Tomorrow’s Management, (Oxford, England:
Heinemann Professional Publishing, 1989).
4. Besides the one by Gerhard Mensch, other classifications cited by him that
also show the clustering effect include all the significant accomplishments in
technical history mentioned by Joseph A. Schumpeter in Konjunktuzyklen I
and II (Göttingen, Germany: 1961); mixed data (both basic innovations and
improvement innovations have been included) from J. Schmookler, Invention
and Economic Growth (Cambridge: 1966), pp. 220-222.
5. The seasonality of innovations was pointed out by Cesare Marchetti in “Society
as a Learning System: Discovery, Invention and Innovation Cycles
Revisited,” Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol. 18 (1980:
267-282.
6. Element discovery was first associated with logistic growth in Derek J. de
Sola Price, Little Science, Big Science (New York, 1967). Elliott Montroll
reexamined the situation in 1974 in Elliott W. Montroll and Wade W.
Badger, Introduction to Quantitative Aspects of Social Phenomena, (New
York: Gordon and Breach Science Publishers, 1974). Finally, in 1980, Cesare
Marchetti hinted that chemical-element discovery may be linked to
Kondratieff’s cycle, see note 5 above.
7. Donald Spoto, The Dark Side of Genius: The Life of Alfred Hitchcock,
(New York: Ballantine Books, 1983).
8. Nebojsa Nakicenovic, “Software Package for the Logistic Substitution
Model,” report RR-79-12, International Institute of Advanced Systems
Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, (1979).
9. Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970, vols. 1
and 2, Bureau of the Census, Washington DC.
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