PREDICTIONS – 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute

PROLOGUE
My second realization concerns predictability. There is a promise
implicit in a process of natural growth, which is guaranteed by nature:
The growth cycle will not stop halfway through. Whenever I come
across a fair fraction of a growth process, be it in nature, society, business,
or my private life, I try to visualize the full cycle. If I have the
firsts half as given, I can predict the future; if I am faced with the second
half, I can deduce the past. I have made peace with my arrogance
and have grown to accept that a certain amount of predetermination is
associated with natural processes, as if by definition from the word
natural.
I am not the first one to be impressed with the amount of predictability
accessible through natural growth formulations. Besides the
scientists I mentioned earlier, many others have written professional
works on this subject. The goal I set for myself in writing this book was
to share my experience with a wider public by showing, in simple terms,
the impact this way of thinking about the past and the future can have
on our everyday lives.
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