PREDICTIONS – 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute

8
A Cosmic Heartbeat
Energy is the ultimate food of life. More than that, one may argue that
energy is responsible for the very creation of life. Consider the statistical
law that says what can happen will happen if you wait long enough.
Such a law acting in an energy-rich environment should ultimately create
life even in the absence of consciousness. This is a philosophical
thesis that deserves more development but falls outside the scope of this
book. What is of interest here is the detailed way in which life uses energy,
and, in particular, the way humans consume energy, as well as
how and why this consumption may vary over time.
Once again the United States provides the data. This country is
among the youngest in history and the fastest in development, but the
oldest in keeping good records of historical data. This last aspect, in
view of the increasing importance that rich historical data banks have in
forecasting, may prove to be a blessing.
In Historical Statistics of the United States we find detailed information
on how energy has been spent in this country over the past two
centuries. The data indicate a growth for energy consumption that is
impressive. Is it exponential? Only in appearance. Natural growth is not
exponential. Explosions are exponential. Natural growth follows S-
curves. In their early stages, however, S-curves and exponentials appear
to be very similar. Fitting an S-curve to the energy-
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