PREDICTIONS – 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute

1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING
associated with a curve that is markedly similar to the S-curve described
in the previous chapter. Learning begins slowly, proceeds rapidly during
the middle of the process (the steep rise of the S-curve representing the
cumulative amount of learning achieved), and slows
down some time later. At the end, and as the S-curve reaches its ceiling,
the rate of learning ceases altogether. Learning curves are usually used
only in a qualitative way. The intriguing question is whether learning is
governed by the law of natural growth under competition, in which case
it should obey the logistic mathematical function quantitatively also.
During the early phases of a certain activity, repetition accelerates
learning. The more you do something, the faster you can do it the next
time around. The rate of increase in learning seems to be more rapid
than simply proportional to the number of repetitions. Imagine that you
are sitting in front of a typewriter for the first time. Even though all the
letters are clearly labeled, it will take a while before you can type your
name. The third time you type your name, however, you will probably
do it more than three times faster than the first time. This early exponential
growth of learning corresponds to the first bend of the S-curve.
Soon, however, you reach a point where the rate of improvement in
speed slows down. You are exhausting the capabilities of your muscle
reactions. You may want to improve on that, but it will be a slow painful
process with diminishing returns.
In other forms of learning, you may find that you are exhausting the
amount of learning which can be achieved before you reach the limit of
your capabilities. For example, you can improve your performance at
playing tick-tack-toe through repetitions up to the point at which you
have mastered the game. From then onward, further improvement becomes
impossible, no matter how much you practice. Not so with chess;
here the number of configurations is so vast that they can be considered
inexhaustible. What becomes exhausted is your ability to retain an increasingly
larger number of configurations in your mind. You may also
become exhausted physically or even exhaust the time available for
playing chess. In all cases learning will slow down and the final level of
achievement will vary from one individual to another.
The slowing down of the learning process as one approaches the
saturation level results in the second bend of the S-curve. The ultimate
reason for this slowdown is some form of competition, be it for the use
of one’s time, energy, or physical capabilities. The rate at which you are
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