PREDICTIONS – 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute

4. THE RISE AND FALL OF CREATIVITY
The irregularity at the low end of the curve caused the program
to include an early-missing-data parameter. The reason:
better agreement between the curve and the data if eighteen
compositions are assumed to be missing during Mozart’s earliest
years. His first recorded composition was created in 1762,
when he was six. However, the curve extrapolates to reach its
nominal beginning of 1 percent of the maximum at about
1756, Mozart’s birth date. Conclusion: Mozart was composing
from the moment he was born, but his first eighteen compositions
were never recorded due to the fact that he could neither
write nor speak well enough to dictate them to his father.
The second irregularity is at the high end of the curve. The
year 1791 shows a large increase in Mozart’s productivity. In
fact, the data point is well above the curve, corresponding
more to the productivity projected for the year 1793. What
is Mozart trying to do? His potential is determined as 644
WOLFGANG AMADEOUS MOZART (1756-1791)
FIGURE 4.1 The best-fitting S-curve implies 18 compositions “missing”
between 1756 and 1762. The nominal beginning of the curve—
the 1% level—points at Mozart’s birthday. The nominal end—the
99% level—indicates a potential of 644 works.
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