PREDICTIONS – 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute

7. COMPETITION IS THE CREATOR AND THE REGULATOR
the American share has been slowly flattening out, entering by the year
2000 a decline comparable to that of the Europeans. In accordance with
our conclusion in Chapter Five that a decrease in the yearly number of
American laureates must be postponed for a few years, decline in competitiveness
should also be postponed until well into the twenty-first
century. Projecting the lines of the generalized substitution model, one
finds that the Other World will overtake the Europeans around 2005 and
the Americans in 2025.
The competitive substitutions described here corroborate an age advantage.
The American award winners were gaining on the Europeans
up to 1940, with an average age of 53.5 versus 55 years. Similarly, in
the last ten years Other World winners are gaining on the Americans,
with an average age of 58.7 versus 61 years, while European winners
continue losing with an average of 63.6. The argument of age becomes
even more relevant when we consider that the actual work was often
done many years before receiving the award. The recipient’s age at
award time was chosen simply because it was more readily available
and because in some cases it is better defined than the date when the
actual work was done. The evidence for the age advantage is correct in
any case as long as there is no bias among the three regional groups with
respect to this delay. Youth, once again, seems to have an advantage
over old age.
Ten Years Later
The last two data points on each line generally confirm the
trends first established in 1988. Any deviation the reader may
want to see into recent times would be in the same direction as
with Figure 5.1, that is, highlighting an enhanced staying
power for the U.S. share.
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