PREDICTIONS – 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute

NOTES AND SOURCES
6. The data come from Stanley Sadie, ed. New Grove Dictionary of Music and
Musicians, (London: Macmillan, 1980).
7. Theodore Modis and Alain Debecker, “Innovation in the Computer Industry,”
Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol. 33 (1988): 267–
78.
Chapter Five: Good Guys and Bad Guys Compete the Same Way
1. Theodore Modis, “Competition and Forecasts for Nobel Prize Awards,”
Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol. 34 (1988): 95-102.
2. Cesare Marchetti, “On Time and Crime: A quantitative Analysis of the Time
Pattern of Social and Criminal Activities,” invited paper to the Annual Interpol
Meeting, Messina, Italy, October 1985. Also report WP-85-84,
November 1985, International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg,
Austria.
3. The data come from the Statistical Abstract of the United States, U.S. Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, 1986–91; also from the
Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970, vols. 1
and 2, Bureau of the Census, Washington, DC, 1976.
4. See note 3 above.
5. Henry James Parish, Victory with Vaccines, (Edinburgh and London: E. & S.
Livingstone Ltd., 1968); also Henry James Parish, A History of Immunization,
(Edinburgh and London: E. & S. Livingstone Ltd., 1965).
6. Such a discussion on diphtheria and tuberculosis was first presented by Cesare
Marchetti in “Killer Stories: A System Exploration in Mortal Diseases”,
report PP-82-7, 1982, International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis,
Laxenburg, Austria.
Chapter Six: A Hard Fact of Life
1. J.C. Fisher and R.H. Pry, “A Simple Substitution Model of Technological
Change,” Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol. 3, no 1
(1971): 75-88.
2. Steven Schnaars, Megamistakes: Forecasting and the Myth of Rapid Technological
Change, (New York: The Free Press, 1989).
3. The building is called the Goetheanum and serves as the headquarters of
Steiner’s Anthroposophical Society. The Goetheanum is in Dornach close to
Basel, Switzerland.
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