PREDICTIONS â 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute

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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT spikes stand out at the beginning of each downturn of the energy cycle. These spikes are so pronounced compared with the usual day-to-day price fluctuations and are so regularly spaced that they inspire confidence in setting forth some daring forecasts. For example, neither pricefixing nor hostilities among the oil-producing countries should succeed in raising oil prices to the 1981 levels for longer than a few months at a time. The price of oil will stay around 20 1996-dollars a barrel well beyond the year 2000. Energy prices are due to hit a high again around 2030 and will mostly reflect the price of natural gas, which will be the dominant energy source of the time. Cesare Marchetti noted that periods of increasing energy consumption coincide with economic growth leading to a boom. This growth is preceded, and probably caused by, periods during which basic innovations abound. Innovations are like flower bulbs that sprout and bloom into industries during the boom. To check this further, he looked at the growth of the automobile in the world market and found an extreme regularity in the way populations of cars grew to fill their niches. Like species, they followed natural-growth curves to reach ceilings calculable ahead of time. Moreover, latecomers, such as Japan, grew faster so that in the end they would all reach their saturation level at about the same time: the mid 1990s. In the major Western countries, registered cars have practically completed their niche, just like the American and the Italian niches discussed in the beginning of Chapter Three. A general saturation of the growth of automobile populations across Europe coincides with an economic recession. ———————————————————————————————– FIGURE 8.3 (next page) Annual averages for the price of energy are obtained from two different sources for the two periods indicated. ∗ The substitution of energies at the bottom is obtained from Figure 7.6, with the addition of animal feed for the U.S. (intermittent line). The small black triangles point at the peak of each primary energy source’s dominance. These points in time coincide with price flares and the beginning of economic decline. The little black dots on the price graph represent updates. ∗ Fuel and Lighting prices from Historical Statistics, Colonial Times to 1970, vols. 1 and 2, Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C. Oil process from World Energy Outlook, Chevron Corporation, Corporate Planning and Analysis, San Francisco, CA. 182
8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT ENERGY PRICES, CONSUMPTION, AND SUBSTITUTION, ALL SYNCHRONIZED 300 70 250 Fuel & Lighting Oil 60 Price Index (1926=100) 200 150 100 50 40 30 20 1996 $ Per Barrel Energy Prices 50 10 0 0 20 - % Deviation... 10 - 0 - -10 - US Energy Consumption -20- 91% 1 76% 0.5 Wood Coal Nat. Gas Nuclear 50% 0 Oil % Share 24% -0.5 9% -1 Animal Feed So lFus Primary Energy Substitution -1.5 3% -2 1% 1780 1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120 2140 183
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PREDICTIONS - 10 Years Later Ten ye
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Copyright © 2002 by Theodore Modis
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CONTENTS Going West 53 Mesopotamia,
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CONTENTS 10. IF I CAN, I WANT 225 W
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PREFACE This book is about seeing t
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PROLOGUE The fisherman starting his
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PROLOGUE analogy between natural la
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PROLOGUE animal population and foll
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PROLOGUE stead; and those who belie
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1 Science and Foretelling A barman
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING prices,
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING the futu
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING Safety i
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING But exam
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING programm
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING terpreta
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING On the o
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING terms of
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING THE LAW
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING resolved
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING by hard
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2 Needles in a Haystack HOW MUCH OR
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK able to fi
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK LEARNING F
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK Intel’s
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK looks like
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK documentat
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK MESOPOTAMI
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK derstandin
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3. INANIMATE PRODUCTION LIKE ANIMAT
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4. THE RISE AND FALL OF CREATIVITY
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5 Good Guys and Bad Guys Compete th
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5. GOOD GUYS AND BAD GUYS COMPETE T
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6 A Hard Fact of Life Natural growt
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE avoid wrong
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE one substitu
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE place in a n
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE DETERGENTS S
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT look like an S
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT producing chao
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT First commerci
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT In addition to
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT Between two su
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT The state depi
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT to sustain one
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY announced i
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY The “natu
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY In 1975, as
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY The country
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY feedback me
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY States, rec
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY in 1991 pro
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY least four
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY United Stat
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY which would
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EPILOGUE • • • We are in Cent
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EPILOGUE Fads and media stories abo
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APPENDICES 273
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APPENDIX A The Predator-Prey Equati
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APPENDIX A the two varieties will b
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APPENDIX A By assigning weights to
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APPENDIX B As an example, let us co
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APPENDIX C Additional Figures THE N
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APPENDIX C POPULATIONS OF CARS GROW
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APPENDIX C RAILWAY NETWORKS GROW LI
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APPENDIX C GOTHIC CATHEDRALS APPEND
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APPENDIX C OIL PRODUCTION AND DISCO
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APPENDIX C ERNEST HEMINGWAY (1899-1
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APPENDIX C THE BIRTH RATE OF AMERIC
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APPENDIX C 296
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APPENDIX C WORLD WAR II FAVORED TUB
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APPENDIX C THE EXIT OF STEAM ENGINE
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APPENDIX C 302
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APPENDIX C THE DESTRUCTION OF THRES
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APPENDIX C WARS MAY INTERFERE WITH
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APPENDIX C COMPETITION BETWEEN TRAN
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APPENDIX C ANNUAL ENERGY CONSUMPTIO
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APPENDIX C THE GROWTH OF AIR TRAFFI
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APPENDIX C Annual registrations 6,0
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APPENDIX C POPULARIZED DEATHS HAVE
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NOTES AND SOURCES Prologue 1. Donel
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NOTES AND SOURCES the Law Followed
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NOTES AND SOURCES 4. For examples s
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NOTES AND SOURCES bile Road to Tech
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NOTES AND SOURCES 2. For a brief de
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NOTES AND SOURCES Appendix B: Expec
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Bagwell, my initia
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PREDICTIONS â 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute