PREDICTIONS â 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute

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9. REACHING THE CEILING EVERYWHERE THE TIMING OF TECHNOLOGICAL GROWTH CURVES Unless otherwise indicated (as for the subway-related and the computerrelated graphs), the dates have been read off various drawings in Grubler’s The Rise and Fall of Infrastructures. Tunneling-through processes are not shown in Figure 9.2, (representative ones are shown in Appendix C, Figure 9.2.) Level of Saturation_ 10% 50% 90% First Industrial Growth Wave Canal construction–England 1745 1785 1824 Canal construction–France 1813 1833 1853 Canal construction–United States 1819 1835 1851 Tunneling-through process: Canal construction–Russia (1st burst) 1781 1837 1892 Second Industrial Growth Wave Railway construction–Germany 1853 1881 1909 Railway construction–Austria 1858 1884 1909 Substituting steam for sails–United Kingdom 1857 1885 1912 Substituting steam for sails–United States 1849 1885 1921 Substituting steam for sails–Austria/Hungary 1867 1890 1914 Railway construction–United States 1865 1892 1919 Railway construction–Worldwide 1866 1893 1921 Substituting steam for sails–Worldwide 1868 1894 1921 Substituting steam for sails–Germany 1874 1895 1915 Substituting steam for sails–France 1868 1898 1928 Substituting steam for sails–Russia 1872 1899 1926 Substituting cars for horses–France 1903 1911 1919 First wave of subway inaugurations -worldwide 2 1892 1915 1938 Substituting cars for horses–United States 1911 1918 1925 Substituting cars for horses–United Kingdom 1910 1919 1929 Substituting cars for horses–Worldwide 1916 1924 1932 Motor vehicles for horses (freight)–France 1916 1925 1934 Tunneling-through process: Oil pipeline construction–United States 1907 1937 1967 206
9. REACHING THE CEILING EVERYWHERE Level of Saturation__ 10% 50% 90% Third Industrial Growth Wave Railway construction–U.S.S.R. 1928 1949 1970 Growth of paved roads–United States 1921 1952 1984 Substituting motor for steam ships–United Kingdom 1928 1953 1978 Canal construction–U.S.S.R. (second burst) 1936 1956 1975 Phasing out of steam locomotives–Germany 1950 1961 1971 Phasing out of steam locomotives–Austria 1952 1961 1970 Phasing out of steam locomotives–U.S.S.R. 1956 1962 1968 Natural gas pipeline construction–United States 1936 1963 1990 Phasing out of steam locomotive–France 1954 1963 1973 Phasing out of steam locomotives–United Kingdom 1958 1965 1971 Car population–United States 1942 1968 1995 Jet engine performance–Worldwide 1952 1967 1982 Natural gas pipeline construction–Worldwide 1948 1969 1990 Passenger aircraft performance–Worldwide 1953 1970 1988 Car population–Australia 1954 1970 1987 Car population–Italy 1960 1971 1982 Car population–world 1957 1972 1988 Car population–Austria 1960 1973 1986 Car population–Spain 1964 1974 1983 Second wave of subway inaugurations–Worldwide 1955 1975 1995 Car population–Japan 1969 1977 1986 Percentage of cars with catalytic converters–United 1975 1980 1985 States Personal-computer manufacturers–Worldwide 3 1972 1981 1991 Personal-computer models–Worldwide 1975 1983 1991 Tunneling-trough processes: Airways–United States 4 1963 2001 2039 Total air traffic–Worldwide 5 1944 1994 2018 Paved roads–U.S.S.R. 1949 1980 2012 Computer models (excluding personal computers)– 1973 1988 2002 Worldwide Computer manufacturers (excluding personal computers)–Worldwide 1976 1991 2006 207
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PREDICTIONS - 10 Years Later Ten ye
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Copyright © 2002 by Theodore Modis
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CONTENTS Going West 53 Mesopotamia,
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CONTENTS 10. IF I CAN, I WANT 225 W
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PREFACE This book is about seeing t
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PROLOGUE The fisherman starting his
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PROLOGUE analogy between natural la
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PROLOGUE animal population and foll
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PROLOGUE stead; and those who belie
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1 Science and Foretelling A barman
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING prices,
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING the futu
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING Safety i
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING But exam
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING programm
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING terpreta
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING On the o
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING terms of
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING THE LAW
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING resolved
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING by hard
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2 Needles in a Haystack HOW MUCH OR
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK able to fi
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK LEARNING F
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK Intel’s
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK looks like
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK documentat
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK MESOPOTAMI
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK derstandin
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3. INANIMATE PRODUCTION LIKE ANIMAT
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4. THE RISE AND FALL OF CREATIVITY
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5 Good Guys and Bad Guys Compete th
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5. GOOD GUYS AND BAD GUYS COMPETE T
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6 A Hard Fact of Life Natural growt
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE avoid wrong
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE one substitu
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE place in a n
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE DETERGENTS S
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE The percenta
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE During the l
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE Another inno
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE replacement.
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE soldiers opp
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE takes place
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7. COMPETITION IS THE CREATOR AND T
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY feedback me
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY States, rec
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY in 1991 pro
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY least four
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY United Stat
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY which would
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EPILOGUE • • • We are in Cent
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EPILOGUE Fads and media stories abo
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APPENDICES 273
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APPENDIX A The Predator-Prey Equati
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APPENDIX A the two varieties will b
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APPENDIX A By assigning weights to
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APPENDIX B As an example, let us co
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APPENDIX C Additional Figures THE N
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APPENDIX C POPULATIONS OF CARS GROW
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APPENDIX C RAILWAY NETWORKS GROW LI
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APPENDIX C GOTHIC CATHEDRALS APPEND
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APPENDIX C OIL PRODUCTION AND DISCO
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APPENDIX C ERNEST HEMINGWAY (1899-1
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APPENDIX C THE BIRTH RATE OF AMERIC
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APPENDIX C 296
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APPENDIX C WORLD WAR II FAVORED TUB
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APPENDIX C THE EXIT OF STEAM ENGINE
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APPENDIX C 302
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APPENDIX C THE DESTRUCTION OF THRES
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APPENDIX C WARS MAY INTERFERE WITH
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APPENDIX C COMPETITION BETWEEN TRAN
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APPENDIX C ANNUAL ENERGY CONSUMPTIO
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APPENDIX C THE GROWTH OF AIR TRAFFI
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APPENDIX C Annual registrations 6,0
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APPENDIX C POPULARIZED DEATHS HAVE
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NOTES AND SOURCES Prologue 1. Donel
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NOTES AND SOURCES the Law Followed
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NOTES AND SOURCES 4. For examples s
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NOTES AND SOURCES bile Road to Tech
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NOTES AND SOURCES 2. For a brief de
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NOTES AND SOURCES Appendix B: Expec
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Bagwell, my initia
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PREDICTIONS â 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute