PREDICTIONS – 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute

NOTES AND SOURCES
10. Cesare Marchetti, “On Transport in Europe: The Last 50 Years and the Next
20,” invited paper, First Forum on Future European Transport, Munich,
September 14-16, 1987.
11. Arnulf Grubler, The Rise and Fall of Infrastructures, (Heidelberg: Physica-
Verlag, 1990), p 189.
12. Cesare Marchetti, “Primary Energy Substitution Models: On the Interaction
between Energy and Society,” Technological Forecasting and Social
Change, vol. 10, (1977): 345–56. This paper was first delivered in Moscow
in November 1974 and published in the August 1975 issue of Chemical
Economy and Engineering Review (CEER).
13. See note 12 above.
14. See note 12 above.
15. As cited by Larry Abraham in his Insider Report, vol. VII, no. 9 (February,
1990).
16. Wood is mostly made of cellulose, which is a carbohydrate (as the name says
carbon plus water). By heating wood we get this water out and produce a
black char that contains about 30 percent lignite. Marchetti has published
these molar-ratio estimates in “When Will Hydrogen Come?” Int. J. Hydrogen
Energy, 10, 215 (1985).
Chapter Eight: A Cosmic Heartbeat
1. Hugh B. Stewart, Recollecting the Future: A View of Business, Technology,
and Innovation in the Next 30 Years, (Homewood, IL: Dow Jones-Irwin,
1989).
2. Cesare Marchetti first correlated Stewart’s energy cycle with Mensch’s basic
innovations one. For a review of long economic waves, see R. Ayres, “Technological
Transformations and Long Waves,” parts I & II, Technological
Forecasting and Social Change, vol. 37, nos. 1 and 2 (1990).
3. Unless otherwise stated, all data used for the graphs of this chapter come
from: the Statistical Abstract of the United States, U.S. Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census; also from the Historical Statistics of the
United States, Colonial Times to 1970, vols. 1 and 2, Bureau of the Census,
Washington, DC.
4. Cesare Marchetti, “Fifty-Year Pulsation in Human Affairs, Analysis of Some
Physical Indicators,” Futures, vol.17, no. 3 (1986): 376–88. I have obtained
similar results for the diffusion of subways with data from Dominique and
Mechèle Frémy, QUID 1991, (Paris: Robert Lafont, 1991), p. 1634.
5. A figure like this was first put together by Cesare Marchetti; see note 4
above. The hay (U.S.) data come from Nebojsa Nakicenovic, “The Automo-
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