PREDICTIONS â 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute

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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT compare the data to the trend line. It again reveals a cyclical pattern that closely follows the energy consumption cycle. This may not come as a surprise. If Americans are consuming energy excessively at times, the use of horsepower will be excessive at the same times since a large fraction of primary energy goes into horsepower machines. What is less obvious is which one comes first. Does an excess in available energy result in the use of extra horsepower, or does an increase in greed for horsepower provoke an excess in energy consumption? The fact that the peak in horsepower use comes ten to fifteen years after the peak in energy consumption argues that it couldn’t be horsepower use, which triggers energy consumption. Contrary to intuition, it seems that we don’t spend energy because we need to do something but rather that we do something because there is energy that must be consumed! However, looking at the other phenomena described below that resonate with the same rhythm, we will also consider the possibility that cause and effect may not always be disentangled. Two resonating phenomena may not be responsible for each other’s existence but simply responding to a common external stimulus. As a second example we can take the clustering of basic innovations discussed in Chapter Seven. Still, in Figure 8.2, we see that the peaks in innovation coincide with the valleys in energy consumption. It may be out of phase, but energy consumption is resonating with making basic innovations. Are innovations linked in some way to the amount of energy consumed? They are certainly linked to discoveries, and the discovery of stable elements—the next graph shown in the figure—also ———————–————————————————————— FIGURE 8.2 (next page) On the top, an idealized energy consumption cycle is used as a clock. The data concerning the use of machines represent once again the percent deviation from the fitted trend. Innovations and stable element discoveries are reported as occurrences per decade. There are two sets of data for innovations. Before 1960 the data come from Gerhard Mensch’s book Stalemate in Technology. The update points (black dots) refer to the appearance of patents, and in particular, to percent deviation from the growing trend of patents. There are three sets of data for bank failures: bank suspensions before 1933, banks closed due to financial difficulties between 1940-1985, and percentage of banks loosing money for the period 1990-1999 (black dots). 178
8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT ACTIVITIES THAT ECHO THE ENERGY CONSUMPTION CYCLE 20 - Boom Boom % Deviation... 10 - 0 - -10 - Energy Consumption -20 - 1740 1760 1780 1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 % Deviation 30 - 20 - 10 - 0 - -10 - -20 - -30 - Use of Horsepow er 20 - Number per decade 16 - 12 - 8 - 4 - 0 - - 15 - 10 - 5 - 0 - -5 % Deviation Appearance of Basic Innovations Number per decade 10 - 5 - Discovery of Stable Elements 0 - Annual Number per 100 6 - 4 - 2 - 0 - - 6 - 4 - 2 - 0 Annual Number per 1000 Bank Failures 179
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PREDICTIONS - 10 Years Later Ten ye
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Copyright © 2002 by Theodore Modis
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CONTENTS Going West 53 Mesopotamia,
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CONTENTS 10. IF I CAN, I WANT 225 W
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PREFACE This book is about seeing t
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PROLOGUE The fisherman starting his
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PROLOGUE analogy between natural la
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PROLOGUE animal population and foll
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PROLOGUE stead; and those who belie
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1 Science and Foretelling A barman
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING prices,
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING the futu
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING Safety i
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING But exam
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING programm
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING terpreta
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING On the o
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING terms of
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING THE LAW
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING resolved
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING by hard
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2 Needles in a Haystack HOW MUCH OR
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK able to fi
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK LEARNING F
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK Intel’s
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK looks like
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK documentat
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK MESOPOTAMI
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK derstandin
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3. INANIMATE PRODUCTION LIKE ANIMAT
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4. THE RISE AND FALL OF CREATIVITY
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5 Good Guys and Bad Guys Compete th
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5. GOOD GUYS AND BAD GUYS COMPETE T
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6 A Hard Fact of Life Natural growt
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE avoid wrong
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE one substitu
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT Christopher Co
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT The search for
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT look like an S
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT producing chao
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT First commerci
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT In addition to
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT Between two su
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT The state depi
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT to sustain one
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY announced i
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY The “natu
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY In 1975, as
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY The country
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY feedback me
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY States, rec
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY in 1991 pro
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY least four
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY United Stat
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY which would
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EPILOGUE • • • We are in Cent
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EPILOGUE Fads and media stories abo
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APPENDICES 273
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APPENDIX A The Predator-Prey Equati
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APPENDIX A the two varieties will b
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APPENDIX A By assigning weights to
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APPENDIX B As an example, let us co
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APPENDIX C Additional Figures THE N
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APPENDIX C POPULATIONS OF CARS GROW
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APPENDIX C RAILWAY NETWORKS GROW LI
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APPENDIX C GOTHIC CATHEDRALS APPEND
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APPENDIX C OIL PRODUCTION AND DISCO
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APPENDIX C ERNEST HEMINGWAY (1899-1
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APPENDIX C THE BIRTH RATE OF AMERIC
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APPENDIX C 296
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APPENDIX C WORLD WAR II FAVORED TUB
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APPENDIX C THE EXIT OF STEAM ENGINE
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APPENDIX C 302
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APPENDIX C THE DESTRUCTION OF THRES
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APPENDIX C WARS MAY INTERFERE WITH
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APPENDIX C COMPETITION BETWEEN TRAN
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APPENDIX C ANNUAL ENERGY CONSUMPTIO
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APPENDIX C THE GROWTH OF AIR TRAFFI
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APPENDIX C Annual registrations 6,0
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APPENDIX C POPULARIZED DEATHS HAVE
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NOTES AND SOURCES Prologue 1. Donel
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NOTES AND SOURCES the Law Followed
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NOTES AND SOURCES 4. For examples s
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NOTES AND SOURCES bile Road to Tech
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NOTES AND SOURCES 2. For a brief de
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NOTES AND SOURCES Appendix B: Expec
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Bagwell, my initia
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PREDICTIONS â 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute