PREDICTIONS – 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute

APPENDIX C
COMMERCIAL ENERGY SOURCES REPLACED TRADITIONAL ENERGY
SOURCES
APPENDIX FIGURE 6.2 Data (irregular lines) and fitted curves (straight lines) for
the natural substitution between sources of primary energy in the United States.
The straight lines are S-curves transformed by the logistic vertical scale. Commercial
energies are coal, oil, gas, and nuclear. Traditional sources are wood,
wind, water, and animal feed. ∗
∗ Adapted from a graph by Nakicenovic in “The Automobile Road to Technological
Change: Diffusion of the Automobile as a Process of Technological Substitution,”
Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol. 29 (1986): 309-340. Copyright
1986 by Elsevier Science Publishing Co., Inc. Reprinted by permission of the publisher.
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