PREDICTIONS â 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute

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10. IF I CAN, I WANT TEMPORARY “CHAOS” IN U.S. COAL PRODUCTION Billions of tons 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 FIGURE 10.3 Annual production of bituminous coal in the United States. The two S-curves are fits to the data of the respective historical periods. The interim period shows large fluctuations of chaotic nature. The small circles show what happened during the twelve years following the original prediction. ∗ Before and After Chaos Chaos studies focus on what happens after a niche is filled. The initial rise is largely ignored by chaos scientists, who are interested only in phenomena with erratic fluctuations. Many real cases, however, like the annual car registration in Japan and the production of coal in the U.S., display multiple periods of growth. New markets open new niches, and the historical picture looks like a succession of S-curves. ∗ The data come from the Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970, vols. 1 and 2. Bureau of the Census, Washington DC, and the Statistical Abstract of the United States, U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 240
10. IF I CAN, I WANT Between two successive curves there is typically a period of instability characterized by chaotic fluctuations. Debecker and I tried to reproduce mathematically the chaotic patterns seen in the coal production data. We knew that in order to observe chaos we had to pass to the discrete case, but instead of tampering with Verhulst’s law, the differential equation, we put into a discrete mathematical form only its solution, the S-curve. By doing that we obtained instabilities at both ends of the growth process (see Figure 10.4). In real-life situations we cannot see the early oscillations completely because negative values have no physical meaning. We may see, however, a precursor followed by an accelerated growth rate, an overshoot of the ceiling, and finally erratic fluctuations. These phenomena are interrelated. Precursors are not simple cases of “infant mortality.” Their size and frequency can help predict the steepness of the catching-up trajectory, which in turn will reflect on the importance of the overshoot when the ceiling is approached. Marketers are familiar with these phenomena but do not always understand them. They refer to the catchingup effect as pending demand, and are likely to blame over-shooting the market on poor planning. But they invariably treat precursors as failures. An example is the BankAmericard (the predecessor of the Visa card) that was introduced by the Bank of America in 1958. A year and a half later the experiment was classified a failure; the bank lost money and fired many employees. But nine years later the predecessor of MasterCard was launched and diffused aggressively into society. —————————————————— FIGURE 10.4 (next page). These are examples of the patterns we obtained by putting a natural-growth curve in a discrete mathematical form. The figure at the top demonstrates the so-called early catching-up effect, and the possibility of precursor and overshoot. In the middle, we see regular oscillations, and at the bottom states resembling chaos. In all cases, similar behavior is observed early as well as late in the growth process. ∗ ∗ Adapted from Theodore Modis and Alain Debecker, “Chaoslike States Can Be Expected Before and After Logistic Growth,” Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol. 41, no. 2 (1992). 241
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PREDICTIONS - 10 Years Later Ten ye
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Copyright © 2002 by Theodore Modis
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CONTENTS Going West 53 Mesopotamia,
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CONTENTS 10. IF I CAN, I WANT 225 W
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PREFACE This book is about seeing t
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PROLOGUE The fisherman starting his
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PROLOGUE analogy between natural la
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PROLOGUE animal population and foll
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PROLOGUE stead; and those who belie
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1 Science and Foretelling A barman
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING prices,
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING the futu
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING Safety i
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING But exam
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING programm
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING terpreta
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING On the o
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING terms of
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING THE LAW
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING resolved
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING by hard
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2 Needles in a Haystack HOW MUCH OR
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK able to fi
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK LEARNING F
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK Intel’s
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK looks like
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK documentat
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK MESOPOTAMI
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK derstandin
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3. INANIMATE PRODUCTION LIKE ANIMAT
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4. THE RISE AND FALL OF CREATIVITY
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5 Good Guys and Bad Guys Compete th
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5. GOOD GUYS AND BAD GUYS COMPETE T
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6 A Hard Fact of Life Natural growt
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE avoid wrong
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE one substitu
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE place in a n
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE DETERGENTS S
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE The percenta
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE During the l
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE Another inno
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE replacement.
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE soldiers opp
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE takes place
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7. COMPETITION IS THE CREATOR AND T
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT consumption d
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT compare the d
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT seems to puls
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT spikes stand
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT Marchetti fit
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT the predicted
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT according to
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Page 202 and 203: 9. REACHING THE CEILING EVERYWHERE
Page 204 and 205: Ten Years Later 9. REACHING THE CEI
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Page 227 and 228: 10 If I Can, I Want Logistic functi
Page 229 and 230: 10. IF I CAN, I WANT ability become
Page 231 and 232: 10. IF I CAN, I WANT Christopher Co
Page 233 and 234: 10. IF I CAN, I WANT The search for
Page 235 and 236: 10. IF I CAN, I WANT look like an S
Page 237 and 238: 10. IF I CAN, I WANT producing chao
Page 239 and 240: 10. IF I CAN, I WANT First commerci
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Page 245 and 246: 10. IF I CAN, I WANT The state depi
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Page 271 and 272: EPILOGUE • • • We are in Cent
Page 273 and 274: EPILOGUE Fads and media stories abo
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Page 277 and 278: APPENDIX A The Predator-Prey Equati
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Page 281 and 282: APPENDIX A By assigning weights to
Page 283 and 284: APPENDIX B As an example, let us co
Page 285 and 286: APPENDIX C Additional Figures THE N
Page 287 and 288: APPENDIX C POPULATIONS OF CARS GROW
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APPENDIX C OIL PRODUCTION AND DISCO
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APPENDIX C ERNEST HEMINGWAY (1899-1
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APPENDIX C THE BIRTH RATE OF AMERIC
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APPENDIX C 296
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APPENDIX C WORLD WAR II FAVORED TUB
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APPENDIX C THE EXIT OF STEAM ENGINE
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APPENDIX C THE DESTRUCTION OF THRES
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APPENDIX C WARS MAY INTERFERE WITH
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APPENDIX C COMPETITION BETWEEN TRAN
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APPENDIX C ANNUAL ENERGY CONSUMPTIO
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APPENDIX C THE GROWTH OF AIR TRAFFI
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APPENDIX C Annual registrations 6,0
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APPENDIX C POPULARIZED DEATHS HAVE
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NOTES AND SOURCES Prologue 1. Donel
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NOTES AND SOURCES the Law Followed
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NOTES AND SOURCES 4. For examples s
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NOTES AND SOURCES bile Road to Tech
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NOTES AND SOURCES 2. For a brief de
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NOTES AND SOURCES Appendix B: Expec
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Bagwell, my initia
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PREDICTIONS â 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute