PREDICTIONS – 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute

4. THE RISE AND FALL OF CREATIVITY
Schumann headed at once for the Rhine and hurled himself
to the water. Because of his clothes that he did not sink right
away, and this delay gave nearby fishermen who heard the
splash a chance to pull him out. In the carriage on the way to
the hospital, one of them said, “I think we just saved him.” The
other one seemed absorbed by another thought. “If he did not
succeed killing himself,” he said, “it means he was wrong in
trying to do so.”
• • •
One hundred and thirty-years later, evidence is surfacing in support of
the idea that Schumann was indeed wrong to attempt suicide at the age
of forty-four. He never left that hospital. Even though he died two years
later, he never recovered his mental health and did not contribute any
more to music. However, the number of his published works kept rising
during the eighteen years following his suicide attempt. The numerous
musical manuscripts he had left behind appeared before the public at a
rate that corresponds to the creative course he might have followed if he
had not died. Yet it all happened in his absence!
Figure 4.3 shows the cumulative publication of Schumann’s compositions.
6 They oscillate somewhat around the fitted trend. The overall
curve is segmented into three periods by his major nervous breakdown
in 1845 and his attempted suicide in 1854. Both of these events interfered
with the natural evolution of his work, yet one can distinguish a
smaller S-curve for each period.
According to the nominal beginning of the process, Schumann must
have received his vocation as a composer in 1826, at the age of sixteen.
To corroborate this I turned once again to biographies and I found that
music did not play an important part in Schumann’s early life. During
his childhood he was not musically inclined but was forced to take piano
lessons as a part of his general education. It was not until the age
of thirteen that he started enjoying piano practice and taking an interest
in choral music. Soon, however, he was sent to law school. He changed
universities, trying in vain to study law. It was only when he became
twenty that he summoned up enough courage to declare openly that he
wanted to give up law and devote himself to music. One year later he
was publishing musical compositions.
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