PREDICTIONS – 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute

3. INANIMATE PRODUCTION LIKE ANIMATE REPRODUCTION
the early 1950s was no lesser a feat than the ring of LEP in the late
1980s. Particle physicists gave the best of themselves and were rewarded
comparably in each case. T. W. L. Sanford studied the
succession between accelerators and found that as soon as a new, more
powerful accelerator came into existence, physicists, experiments, and
publications shifted from the old to the new. This changeover was not
abrupt, however, but along smooth S-curves. 5
The reason the size of accelerators has grown to practically absurd
dimensions is that we have progressively exhausted the utility of the
fundamental principle of electron accelerators: the radio-frequency electromagnetic
cavity used for acceleration. Every new horizon of particle
physics research requires higher particle energies, more acceleration, and
more radio-frequency cavities. In the end, it is purely the size, with the
associated expenses, which renders the process obsolete.
The theoretical growth curve fitted to the data points allows the possibility
that one or two more accelerators may still be built worldwide.
But it is more likely that existing accelerators become upgraded in performance,
for example the LHC (Large Hadron Collider) designed to
replace LEP inside the same tunnel. By and large the era of high-energy
physics particle research as we have known is coming to a close. It is
also of interest to note that the nominal beginning of the curve (the 1
percent of maximum level) does not point at Rutherford’s famous experiment
in 1919 when he first used particles to explore the structure of
the atom. The beginning of the accelerator era is pinpointed at the outbreak
of World War II, but “technicalities” during the war years delayed
the actual construction of laboratory sites for about ten years. The data
do in fact show an early catching-up effect. Seen in retrospect, Rutherford’s
seed was given a chance to sprout thanks to the intense activity on
nuclear research during the war years. One may even want to see the
subsequent demonstration of overwhelming power in nuclear energy as
the potent fertilizer that made accelerators grow to gigantic dimensions.
In all three examples—the construction of supertankers, cathedrals,
and particle accelerators—competitive growth was the law in effect. All
three were relatively short-lived endeavors. Extinction was probably
precipitated by competition-related hardships attributed to their exorbitant
size. Size, however, is not necessarily a reason for early extinction.
The real dinosaurs lived longer than most species on earth, and they did
not become extinct by slowly phasing out due to their size. The most
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