PREDICTIONS – 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute

APPENDIX C
FILLING THE AIDS NICHE IN THE UNITED STATES
AIDS victims as a
percentage of all deaths
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
APPENDIX FIGURE 5.3 Deaths from AIDS in the United States. The ceiling of
the S-curve fitted on data up to and including 1988 (black dots) is 2.3. Data
from years 1989–1998 (open circles) confirm that the AIDS niche in the United
States was essentially completed by 1995, and began declining from then
onward. ∗
∗ The data have been provided by HIV/AIDS Surveillance, Centers for Disease Control,
U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Atlanta, GA; the historical data used
for the fit (up to 1988) are as restated in 1993.
299