PREDICTIONS – 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute

5. GOOD GUYS AND BAD GUYS COMPETE THE SAME WAY
It is within this rather rigid envelope that the victims of individual
diseases have to be contained. Diseases come and go, and no single one
claims the whole package. Each has its own niche, a fraction of the lot.
These niches are being filled (or emptied) under conditions of natural
competition as diseases elbow one another striving for victims. New
and “gifted” ones have a competitive advantage over old and “tired”
ones. We have often heard that cancer is not a new disease, but one that
only became prevalent when others subsided. Like mutants, diseases
can be kept in store indefinitely until favorable conditions bring them
out. In that sense cancer started playing an important role only during
the twentieth century and consequently is acting as a relatively young
entry in the competitive arena of diseases.
If diseases compete between themselves, striving for growth and
power in a natural way, the path of filling or emptying their niche
should follow an S-curve like the one of species populations and
human creativity. The anthropomorphic approach of this hypothesis
may be disturbing, but nature is not always delicate; and in any case
the validity of a hypothesis depends mainly on its verification by real
data.
Ten Years Later
The small circles in Figure 5.2 show what happened in the
twelve years that followed the determination of the S-curve
shown. The data points fall closer than ever to the natural
trend.
WHEN WILL THERE BE A MIRACLE DRUG FOR AIDS?
To test this hypothesis let us follow the courses of both a “new” and an
“old” disease. Diphtheria is one of the latter, and as an old disease it has
been fighting a losing battle for survival all through the twentieth century.
Long before an effective vaccine was developed, diphtheria’s share
of all deaths was steadily decreasing, a fact that was perhaps known but
not fully appreciated.
113