PREDICTIONS – 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute

10. IF I CAN, I WANT
must have been in a cynical mood when he created it because his law
lacks scientific rigor. The true ergodic theorem is amoral, in as much as
it does not discriminate between good and bad, desirable and undesirable.
Obviously, the more unlikely the event, the longer it will take before
it occurs. Imagine an enormous brightly colored moth flying in through
the open window at night to land on your arm. Such an event may require
waiting longer than your lifetime. In that sense, it may never
happen, but had you been able to sit there and wait in front of the window
for thousands of years, you would eventually be guaranteed such a
visit.
Ultimately, one might expect “miracles.” As a physics student I had
to calculate how long one has to wait in order to see a pencil fly! Since
atoms in solids are vibrating in random directions, it is conceivable that
there may be a time when all the atoms of one pencil direct themselves
upwards, in which case the pencil will lift off on its own. My calculation
showed that had someone been watching a pencil without
interruption from the day the universe was created, he most certainly
would not have witnessed such a levitation. In fact, it is much worse; in
order to have a fair chance for such a sighting, one would have to wait
another period of that length, but this time with every second itself
stretched to the age of the universe! Yet, the possibility is there, and it is
only a question of time.
Apart from such academic fantasy games, the ergodic theorem can
have more real implications in frequently encountered human behavior.
It can be molded into a social law which says that if one can do something,
one eventually will do it. For this to happen there will be a desire
growing with time, pushing the person toward the act. In other words,
capability breeds desire: If I can, I want.
Applications of this law in society abound. The famous answer to
why climb a mountain, “Because it is there,” is not quite complete. The
correct answer is “Because it is there and I can.” After all, the mountain
has been there as long as mankind. The same law applies to
couples who are asked why they had children. Answers range from
“We did not want to miss the experience” to “It just happened.” In fact,
according to this law, the answer is fundamentally the same in all
cases: “Because we could.” But people, who do not recognize that their
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