PREDICTIONS – 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute

EPILOGUE
inevitable, but if it follows a natural course, it can be anticipated and
planned for. Timing is important. In the world of business, for example,
there is a time to be conservative—the phase of steep growth when
things work well and the best strategy is to change nothing. There is also
the time of saturation when the growth curve starts flattening out. What
is needed then is innovation and encouragement to explore new directions.
Our leaders may not be able to do much about changing an
established trend, but they can do a lot in preparing, adapting, and being
in harmony with it. The same is true for individuals. During periods of
growth or transition our attitude should be a function of where we are
on the S-curve. The flat parts of the curve in the beginning and toward
the end of the process call for action and entrepreneurship, but the
steeply rising part in the middle calls for noninterference, letting things
happen under their own momentum.
Finally, we can obtain some insight into our longevity. Again, I cite
Marchetti as an example. He is more than seventy years old and has already
retired twice, but nevertheless he is producing papers at a frantic
rate. The last time I saw him he told me that he had a backlog of about
twenty-five articles to write. Death rarely strikes those who are enjoying
maximum productivity, and rumor says that Marchetti is overproducing
on purpose in order to live longer. I asked him if he had computed his
curve.
“Yes, I have,” he said and paused. Then he added, as if in silent assent
to the correlation between productivity and life span, “I look both
ways before crossing the street.”
For me, his real motivation for being productive is irrelevant. If his
output does not yet show any signs of decline, I feel confident that he
will continue to live for a long time to come. I had arrived at the same
conclusion ten years ago and it became another successful prediction.
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