PREDICTIONS â 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute

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3. INANIMATE PRODUCTION LIKE ANIMATE REPRODUCTION niche. The Italian S-curve curve published in 1992 had indicated a ceiling of 20 million cars for Italian motorists. Ten years later, and via a smaller follow-up curve, the Italians have demonstrated that they could squeeze 32 million cars in their congested car niche. This should not be interpreted as evidence against natural growth. We will see in Chapter Seven that S- curves can cascade, and that a large one may in fact consists of several cascading smaller ones. I became involved in fitting S-curves to populations of man-made products while I was looking into the possibility of computer sales following such growth. The first computer model I tried turned out to be a showcase, one of Digital’s early successful minicomputers, the VAX 11/750. The cumulative number of units sold is shown at the top of Figure 3.1. An S-curve passes quite closely to all twenty-eight trimesterly data points. In the lower graph we see the product’s life cycle, the number of units sold each trimester. The bell-shaped curve is the life cycle as deduced from the smooth curve at the top. When I produced this graph in 1985, I concluded that the product was phasing out, something which most marketers opposed vehemently at the time. They told me of plans to advertise and repackage the product in order to boost sales. They also spoke of seasonal effects, which could explain some of the recent low sales. The data points during the following three years turned out to be in agreement with my projections. To me this came as evidence that promotion, price, and competition were conditions present throughout a product’s life cycle and have no singular effect. The new programs that marketers put in place were not significantly different from those of the past and therefore did not produce a modification of the predicted trajectory. Many DEC executives claimed that the phasing out of the VAX 11/750 was an unfortunate event precipitated prematurely by the launching of MicroVAX II, a computer as powerful but at one-third the price. Their arguments were irrational. Like early 20th-century physicists resisting quantum mechanical concepts, they were having a hard time with the facts of Figure3.1, which spelled out the fate of the VAX 11/750 three months before MicroVAX II was announced. 64
3. INANIMATE PRODUCTION LIKE ANIMATE REPRODUCTION A SUCCESSFUL COMPUTER PRODUCT MAY FILL ITS NICHE LIKE A SPECIES Cumulative sales 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 <strong>10</strong>00 0 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 Quarterly sales 700 600 500 400 300 200 <strong>10</strong>0 0 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 FIGURE 3.1 At the top, growth of cumulative sales in Europe for Digital’s mimicomputer VAX 11/750. The S-curve shown is a fit carried out in 1985. The dotted line was a forecast at that time; the little circles show the subsequent sales. The product’s life cycle at the bottom has been calculated from the Figure at the top. 65
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PREDICTIONS - 10 Years Later Ten ye
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Copyright © 2002 by Theodore Modis
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CONTENTS Going West 53 Mesopotamia,
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CONTENTS 10. IF I CAN, I WANT 225 W
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PREFACE This book is about seeing t
Page 15 and 16: PROLOGUE The fisherman starting his
Page 17 and 18: PROLOGUE analogy between natural la
Page 19 and 20: PROLOGUE animal population and foll
Page 21 and 22: PROLOGUE stead; and those who belie
Page 23 and 24: 1 Science and Foretelling A barman
Page 25 and 26: 1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING prices,
Page 27 and 28: 1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING the futu
Page 29 and 30: 1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING Safety i
Page 31 and 32: 1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING But exam
Page 33 and 34: 1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING programm
Page 35 and 36: 1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING terpreta
Page 37 and 38: 1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING On the o
Page 39 and 40: 1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING terms of
Page 41 and 42: 1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING THE LAW
Page 43 and 44: 1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING resolved
Page 45 and 46: 1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING by hard
Page 47 and 48: 2 Needles in a Haystack HOW MUCH OR
Page 49 and 50: 2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK able to fi
Page 51 and 52: 2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK LEARNING F
Page 53 and 54: 2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK Intel’s
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Page 61: 2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK derstandin
Page 64 and 65: 3. INANIMATE PRODUCTION LIKE ANIMAT
Page 86 and 87: 4. THE RISE AND FALL OF CREATIVITY
Page 105 and 106: 5 Good Guys and Bad Guys Compete th
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5. GOOD GUYS AND BAD GUYS COMPETE T
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6 A Hard Fact of Life Natural growt
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE avoid wrong
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE one substitu
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE place in a n
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE DETERGENTS S
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE The percenta
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE During the l
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE Another inno
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE replacement.
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE soldiers opp
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE takes place
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7. COMPETITION IS THE CREATOR AND T
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT consumption d
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT compare the d
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT seems to puls
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT spikes stand
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT Marchetti fit
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT the predicted
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT according to
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT It is equally
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT Finally, ther
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT Ten Years Lat
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT having the th
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT The number fi
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9. REACHING THE CEILING EVERYWHERE
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Ten Years Later 9. REACHING THE CEI
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Ten Years Later 9. REACHING THE CEI
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10 If I Can, I Want Logistic functi
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT ability become
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT Christopher Co
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT The search for
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT look like an S
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT producing chao
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT First commerci
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT In addition to
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT Between two su
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT The state depi
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT to sustain one
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY announced i
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY The “natu
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY In 1975, as
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY The country
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY feedback me
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY States, rec
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY in 1991 pro
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY least four
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY United Stat
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY which would
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EPILOGUE • • • We are in Cent
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EPILOGUE Fads and media stories abo
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APPENDICES 273
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APPENDIX A The Predator-Prey Equati
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APPENDIX A the two varieties will b
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APPENDIX A By assigning weights to
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APPENDIX B As an example, let us co
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APPENDIX C Additional Figures THE N
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APPENDIX C POPULATIONS OF CARS GROW
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APPENDIX C RAILWAY NETWORKS GROW LI
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APPENDIX C GOTHIC CATHEDRALS APPEND
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APPENDIX C OIL PRODUCTION AND DISCO
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APPENDIX C ERNEST HEMINGWAY (1899-1
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APPENDIX C THE BIRTH RATE OF AMERIC
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APPENDIX C 296
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APPENDIX C WORLD WAR II FAVORED TUB
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APPENDIX C THE EXIT OF STEAM ENGINE
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APPENDIX C 302
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APPENDIX C THE DESTRUCTION OF THRES
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APPENDIX C WARS MAY INTERFERE WITH
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APPENDIX C COMPETITION BETWEEN TRAN
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APPENDIX C ANNUAL ENERGY CONSUMPTIO
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APPENDIX C THE GROWTH OF AIR TRAFFI
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APPENDIX C Annual registrations 6,0
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APPENDIX C POPULARIZED DEATHS HAVE
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NOTES AND SOURCES Prologue 1. Donel
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NOTES AND SOURCES the Law Followed
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NOTES AND SOURCES 4. For examples s
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NOTES AND SOURCES bile Road to Tech
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NOTES AND SOURCES 2. For a brief de
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NOTES AND SOURCES Appendix B: Expec
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Bagwell, my initia
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PREDICTIONS â 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute