PREDICTIONS – 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute

11. FORECASTING DESTINY
optimistic one. How can there be many futures? There has been only
one past.
Theoretical physicists like to build abstract models. In one of them,
the idea of parallel worlds says that a multitude of alternate ways to
continue today’s world springs into existence every second. All these
worlds evolve and multiply in infinite directions every second. Such a
science fiction view of reality is entertaining. Furthermore, it endorses
the often-cited morality of the unlimited number of choices the future
has in store for us. But we are confined to one world, and there is simply
no way to communicate with or produce evidence for the existence
of the other ones.
In our world the evolution of energy substitutions generally followed
well-defined natural trajectories. Deviations from these trajectories
should be interpreted as “hunting” for the path. But hunting implies a
hunter. The future scenarios of the different models may all be possible.
They are the mutants. They exist because they can. (Presumably these
models are not based on impossibilities.) Our future will be unique,
however, and will be based on the mutation best fit for survival. The
path is built through a trial-and-error approach. If a choice is good, it is
kept, developed, and diffused; if not, it is rejected in favor of a chance
to try another choice. But the one who decides is not a government, a
leading scientist, or another decision maker. It is the system itself: the
complete set of interrelated physical quantities that have evolved via
natural-growth curves.
A SYSTEM’S PREDICTABILITY
The energy system has worked well so far. Coal was there when we
needed it, and oil is available within a few miles of wherever you happen
to be. Oil crises have come and gone without interfering
significantly with everyday life. When domestic production was not
enough, imports increased “naturally,” and whenever the oil-producing
countries tried to devise mechanisms to raise prices (including waging
war), they achieved at most short-term price fluctuations. The Iraq war
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