PREDICTIONS – 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute

1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING
that such macroscopic descriptions as invariants and natural-growth
functions bring out the system’s holographic character. Thus, from a
small part of history one is able to reconstruct successfully a long series
of data points forward and backward in time. In other words, there are
stable and deep-rooted organization patterns, which make collective
social behavior comply with the fundamental laws governing the past,
the present, and the future.
INVARIANTS
The simplest possible law dictates that something does not change—an
invariant, in scientific terms. Invariants are, of course, the easiest things
to forecast. They reflect states of equilibrium maintained by natural
regulating mechanisms. In ecosystems such equilibrium is called homeostasis
and refers to the harmonious coexistence of predator and prey
in a world where species rarely become extinct for natural reasons.
States of equilibrium can also be found in many aspects of social
living. Whenever the level of a hardship or a menace increases beyond
the tolerable threshold, corrective mechanisms are automatically triggered
to lower it. On the other hand, if the threat accidentally falls
below the tolerated level, society becomes blasé about the issue, and the
corresponding indicators begin creeping up again with time.
Invariants have the tendency to hide behind headlines. For example,
the number of deaths due to motor vehicle accidents becomes alarming
when reported for a big country like the United States over a three-day
weekend, which is what journalists do. However, when averaged over a
year and divided by one hundred thousand of population, it becomes so
stable over time and geography that it emerges as rather reassuring!
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