PREDICTIONS â 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute

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7. COMPETITION IS THE CREATOR AND THE REGULATOR HYDROGEN CONTENT OF THE PRIMARY-ENERGY MIX FIGURE 7.7 The black dots indicate the evolution of the hydrogen-content percentage according to the energy mix of Figure 7.6. The thick gray line is an S- curve fit to the black dots over the period 1860-2008. The gray area reflects the amount of hydrogen that needs to be provided from non-fossil types of energy. contributed by nuclear energy, if we want to continue the wellestablished natural course. Nuclear energy can indeed do that in a number of different ways. For example seawater can be split into hydrogen and oxygen via electrolysis or by direct use of nuclear heat. It must be noted that nuclear energy is not indispensable for the natural path to be maintained. There is enough hydrogen in the fossil-based energies, so it suffices to simply adjust the mix differently. At the end, the ceiling of the S-curve in Figure 7.7 being around 80 percent could be achieved by using only natural gas and nothing else. Alternatively, nuclear energy could be replaced by solar, wind, hydroelectric or a combination thereof, but these technologies are still responsible for insignificant contribution to the energy picture worldwide. Moreover such scenarios would introduce 168
7. COMPETITION IS THE CREATOR AND THE REGULATOR important deviations from the natural paths in the evolution of the market shares of Figure 7.6. In fact, the recent data-trend deviations discussed earlier go the wrong way by aggravating the missinghydrogen problem. One more reason that raises the pressure, which is slowly building up from the delay of hydrogen’s introduction. Interestingly, there is all ready a herald of the approaching hydrogen era: fuel cells. This technology is rapidly picking up momentum and is often mistaken for a solution to the energy question. But fuel cells need hydrogen to run. If hydrogen were readily available, we could just as easily put it in our cars. They would run faster and would produce no undesirable emissions whatsoever. THE DISEASE “MARKET” Here is yet another example of successive substitutions along natural-growth curves. I mentioned earlier that diseases can be seen as competing for the biggest share of all deaths. Young diseases are on the rise while old ones are phasing out. Charting this phenomenon I obtained a simplified but quantitative picture in which diseases were grouped into three broad categories according to prevalence and nature (Appendix C, Figure 7.2). One group contained all cardiovascular ailments, today’s number-one killer. A second group was called neoplastic and included all types of cancer. The third group comprised all old, generally phasing out, diseases. Hepatitis and diabetes were not included because their share was rather flat over time (no competitive substitutions) and below the 1 percent level (not visible in the usual picture). Cirrhosis of the liver also represented too small a percentage, but being of an intriguing cyclical nature, it is reported separately later in Figure 8.4. The disease “market” presented the classic mountainous landscape of the dynamics of natural competition. From the turn of the century, cardiovascular ailments have been claiming a progressively increasing share, making them the dominant cause of death by 1925. Their share reached a peak in the 1960s with more than 70 percent of all deaths and then started declining in favor of cancer, which had also been steadily growing at a comparable rate—parallel line—but at a lower level. All 169
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PREDICTIONS - 10 Years Later Ten ye
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Copyright © 2002 by Theodore Modis
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CONTENTS Going West 53 Mesopotamia,
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CONTENTS 10. IF I CAN, I WANT 225 W
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PREFACE This book is about seeing t
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PROLOGUE The fisherman starting his
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PROLOGUE analogy between natural la
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PROLOGUE animal population and foll
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PROLOGUE stead; and those who belie
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1 Science and Foretelling A barman
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING prices,
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING the futu
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING Safety i
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING But exam
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING programm
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING terpreta
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING On the o
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING terms of
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING THE LAW
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING resolved
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING by hard
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2 Needles in a Haystack HOW MUCH OR
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK able to fi
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK LEARNING F
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK Intel’s
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK looks like
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK documentat
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK MESOPOTAMI
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK derstandin
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3. INANIMATE PRODUCTION LIKE ANIMAT
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4. THE RISE AND FALL OF CREATIVITY
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5 Good Guys and Bad Guys Compete th
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5. GOOD GUYS AND BAD GUYS COMPETE T
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9. REACHING THE CEILING EVERYWHERE
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Ten Years Later 9. REACHING THE CEI
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9. REACHING THE CEILING EVERYWHERE
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10 If I Can, I Want Logistic functi
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT ability become
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT Christopher Co
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT The search for
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT look like an S
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT producing chao
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT First commerci
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT In addition to
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT Between two su
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT The state depi
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT to sustain one
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY announced i
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY The “natu
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY In 1975, as
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY The country
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY feedback me
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY States, rec
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY in 1991 pro
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY least four
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY United Stat
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY which would
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EPILOGUE • • • We are in Cent
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EPILOGUE Fads and media stories abo
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APPENDICES 273
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APPENDIX A The Predator-Prey Equati
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APPENDIX A the two varieties will b
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APPENDIX A By assigning weights to
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APPENDIX B As an example, let us co
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APPENDIX C Additional Figures THE N
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APPENDIX C POPULATIONS OF CARS GROW
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APPENDIX C RAILWAY NETWORKS GROW LI
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APPENDIX C GOTHIC CATHEDRALS APPEND
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APPENDIX C OIL PRODUCTION AND DISCO
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APPENDIX C ERNEST HEMINGWAY (1899-1
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APPENDIX C THE BIRTH RATE OF AMERIC
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APPENDIX C 296
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APPENDIX C WORLD WAR II FAVORED TUB
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APPENDIX C THE EXIT OF STEAM ENGINE
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APPENDIX C 302
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APPENDIX C THE DESTRUCTION OF THRES
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APPENDIX C WARS MAY INTERFERE WITH
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APPENDIX C COMPETITION BETWEEN TRAN
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APPENDIX C ANNUAL ENERGY CONSUMPTIO
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APPENDIX C THE GROWTH OF AIR TRAFFI
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APPENDIX C Annual registrations 6,0
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APPENDIX C POPULARIZED DEATHS HAVE
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NOTES AND SOURCES Prologue 1. Donel
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NOTES AND SOURCES the Law Followed
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NOTES AND SOURCES 4. For examples s
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NOTES AND SOURCES bile Road to Tech
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NOTES AND SOURCES 2. For a brief de
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NOTES AND SOURCES Appendix B: Expec
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Bagwell, my initia
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PREDICTIONS â 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute