PREDICTIONS – 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute

APPENDIX C
TELEPHONES DOMINATED COMMUNICATIONS
APPENDIX FIGURE 6.5 Substitution of letters by telephone calls in the total
number of messages communicated in France between 1900 and 1985. Equal
numbers of messages were exchanged by each medium around 1970. The irregular
lines are the actual data while the idealized substitution trajectories have
become straight lines thanks to the logistic scale. ∗
∗ Adapted from a graph by Arnulf Grubler in The Rise and Fall of Infrastructures,
1990. Reprinted by permission of the publisher Physica-Verlag, Heidelberg.
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