PREDICTIONS – 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute

3. INANIMATE PRODUCTION LIKE ANIMATE REPRODUCTION
CANONIZATION OF SAINTS CAME IN TWO WAVES
FIGURE 3.3 The two S-curves have been fitted separately to the historical windows
400–1000 and 1300–1970. The first curve, called patristic, is backcasted
to a nominal beginning around 300 B.C. The second curve, called Thomistic
from Thomas Aquinas (1224–1274), is forecasted to reach a ceiling soon. Between
the tenth and the thirteenth centuries, canonization proceeds at a flat rate,
indicating a period that does not belong to a natural-growth process.
The ceiling of the second wave is to be reached toward the end of the
21st century. One wonders if some form of eccentric religious behavior
is to be expected then, too. An early signal could be the fact that Pope
John Paul II canonized saints at a record rate of 1.5 per year.
The most interesting observation in Figure 3.3 concerns the very beginning
of the first curve. The fit deviates from the early data points.
The rate of growth in the number of saints during the first few centuries
A.D. seems much faster than the more natural rate observed later on. One
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