PREDICTIONS – 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute

4. THE RISE AND FALL OF CREATIVITY
ROBERT SCHUMAN (1810-1856)
FIGURE 4.3 The publication of Schumann’s compositions. The fitted curve
begins around 1826 and aims at a ceiling of 173. Schumann’s publications
reached 170, sixteen years after his death.
His composing was erratic. It ceased entirely or accelerated quickly
following outbreaks of his mental illness. The publication of his works
follows a more natural course, however. Society smoothed out his irregular
composing pattern. His attempted suicide with the ensuing death
make only a small dent in the evolution of his published work. And his
publications kept appearing after his death, closely following the curve
that had been established to a large extent during his lifetime. As far as
the public was concerned, Schumann remained alive, composing, slowing
down progressively, and finally stopping in 1872 at the more
appropriate age of sixty-two.
Schumann’s career is a case where an early forecast by the S-curve
approach would have produced erroneous results in spite of the fact that
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