PREDICTIONS – 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute

5. GOOD GUYS AND BAD GUYS COMPETE THE SAME WAY
twentieth century when the awards were instituted, receiving a Nobel
prize seemed to be exclusively a European activity. Americans entered
the scene in 1907, in small numbers at first, with one award every few
years. But Americans gained ground continuously, and by the late 1930s
and early 1940s they excelled. Following World War II there have been
American awards almost every year. The peak of the smooth curve is
around 1985, however, and it implies entering a declining phase in the
1990s, something that could not have been guessed from the yearly data
points, which fluctuate greatly. The reader should bear in mind, however,
that the uncertainties from the fitting procedure could shift the
turnover point in the life cycle by several years. In any case the average
number of yearly American awards by the mid 21st century is projected
to be less than one. It is true that the year 1991 saw zero American laureates
and the year 1999 only one, but the magnitude of year-to-year
fluctuations does not permit the use of these numbers as confirmation of
the decline.
The question that comes to mind is, “If Americans are winning fewer
Nobel prizes, are others winning more?” To answer this we must consider
the distribution of prizes among the competing countries and look
for relative trends. Doing so (see Chapter Seven), one realizes that the
American decline is, in fact, less alarming than it might at first appear.
The American share of Nobel prizes remains rather stable until 2000.
But a declining absolute number with a constant share implies that the
total number of Nobel prizes awarded itself decreases.
Is it reasonable to expect that the institution of Nobel awards will
weaken and wither with time? Several observations support such a hypothesis.
The first is that the yearly number of laureates has been
increasing. New categories are added (economics in 1969, mathematics
is being considered), and more individuals share prizes more often as
time goes on. These inflationary tactics lead to devaluation and suggest
that there may be an end of life for Nobel awards.
A second observation is that the average age of Nobel laureates is
increasing. It was 54.5 until 1940 and has risen to 57.7 for the periods
1940-1987; if we look at only the decade 1991-2000, it has reached
63.3. Although this may in part reflect the general increase in life
expectancy, it is degenerate in nature inasmuch as excellence is
associated with the older and weaker rather than the younger and better
fit for performance. It is worth noting that age does correlate with per-
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