PREDICTIONS – 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute

10. IF I CAN, I WANT
is being approached. In contrast, an entrenched chaos will reveal nothing
about when the next growth phase may start. One has to locate it
from other considerations particular to each case. The fifty-year economic
cycle is one way to predict growth periods. Both coal production
and energy consumption are seen to rise from 1884 to 1912 and again
from 1940 to 1968, periods of rapid economic development worldwide.
Generally speaking, S-curves are important tools in modeling the
stage of growth, whereas descriptions of chaos are more appropriate for
the irregular fluctuations observed in the absence of growth. There are
phenomena for which the initial rise in the growth pattern becomes
quickly irrelevant—for example, building up a smoking habit. Every
smoker starts from zero, but most people’s concern is how much they
smoke per day rather than the detailed path along which their habit was
formed. The number of cigarettes smoked per day displays chaotic fluctuations.
On the other hand, when it comes to the growth in a child’s
height, the small fluctuations during adolescence, after the end of the
process, are of no consequence whatsoever.
S-CURVES AND THE IF-I-CAN-I-WANT LAW
The above discussion makes the law behind S-curves more fundamental
because it gives rise to both orderly growth and chaotic fluctuations.
Chaos constitutes only one chapter in the greater book of S-curves,
namely the low-growth period that follows the completion of a naturalgrowth
step. Chaos is produced mathematically via the very same natural-growth
law—Verhulst’s equation—in a discrete form. But there is an
even more fundamental law that lies in the heart of natural growth. It is
the ergodic theorem that we referred to earlier as “if I can, I want.”
Rabbits confined to a range will multiply because they can. Their
population will grow because it can, that is, because there is still room
to grow into. Niches are never left partially full under natural circumstances.
If a niche can become full, it will. This realization can have
far-reaching consequences in everyday life. It means that every niche
will be filled to capacity even if growth there has stopped, or has not
begun yet. Take, for example, the population of the earth. It was mentioned
in the Prologue that Marchetti has calculated that it is possible
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