PREDICTIONS – 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute

3. INANIMATE PRODUCTION LIKE ANIMATE REPRODUCTION
out another small pane; now there are two holes. He liked the
sound it made, and so he throws two stones simultaneously.
That brings the number of holes in the window to four. He decides
to develop this game further, each time throwing a
number of stones equal to the number holes and giving up any
pretense of aim. The random hits make the number of holes
increase exponentially for a while (4, 8, 16, and so forth), but
soon some stones fall through holes causing no further damage.
The vandal adjusts the number of projectiles per throw
according to the rules of his game. But as the number of the
glass pieces still intact diminishes, he realizes that his rate of
“success” is proportional to this number. Despite throwing tens
of projectiles at once, his hit rate is reduced by a factor of two
each time.
Inside the church, under cover of darkness, a tourist is taking
advantage of his sophisticated video-recording equipment
in order to bring home pictures that tourists are not normally
allowed to take. Among other things he films the complete
demolition of the stained-glass window. Aware that he is trespassing,
he does not interfere.
Back home he shows to his friends the beautiful vitraux before
and after. Faced with the dismay and indignation of the
audience, he plays his tape backwards, and the masterpiece is
reconstructed piecemeal. The audience watches the empty honeycomb-like
lead framework become filled with sparkling
colored glass, first one piece, then 2, 4, 8, 16, and so forth, until
the exponential growth slows down. Someone points out
that the growth pattern in the reconstruction is identical to the
sequence of hole appearances in the original scene of vandalism.
• • •
This story provides an intuitive template for population growth in a
space of limited resources. Rabbits, like automobiles, grow exponentially
in the beginning. One brings forth others until competition for a
diminishing resource makes the difficulty of obtaining it inversely pro-
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