PREDICTIONS – 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute

APPENDIX C
COMPETITION BETWEEN DISEASES
Percentage of all
deaths
76% 0.5
Cardiovascular
67% 0.3
56% 0.1
44% -0.1
33% -0.3
24% -0.5
Cancer
17% -0.7
11% -0.9
-1.1 7%
-1.3
5%
Other
-1.5 3%
1890 1940 1990 2040
APPENDIX FIGURE 7.2 This figure splits the total number of deaths in the
United States into major disease categories. Once again, the vertical scale is
logistic. We see only the projections of the straight lines fitted on the data. The
small circles generally confirm the predictions made in 1988.The small upward
trend of Other in recent years seems important because of the nonlinear scale; it
only amounts to about 1% gain. ∗
∗ The data come from the Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to
1970, vols. 1 and 2, Bureau of the Census, Washington DC, and from the Statistical
Abstract of the United States, U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
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