PREDICTIONS – 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute

7. COMPETITION IS THE CREATOR AND THE REGULATOR
Natural selection did well in describing the growth of species populations.
Sociologists and psychologists did not take long to start
borrowing this idea in order to model human competitive behavior
along similar lines. Eventually the competition formalism was brought
to inanimate, more abstract domains, such as products, industries, primary
energies, means of transportation, and diseases. The presence of
competition in these domains had long been recognized but without the
mathematics capable of making quantitative projections which would
provide new insights and produce conclusions that are often interesting
and sometimes far-reaching.
Evolution of a species through natural selection is possible thanks to
mutations and the right conditions. Mutations take place all the time, but
under normal circumstances they are eliminated because they are ill fit
to survive. The species has already reached an optimal configuration
through a long period of natural selection; random mutations are
unlikely to produce a competitive advantage, so they perish. The continuous
availability of mutations, however, serves an important role at
times of violent environmental change to which the species has to adapt
or become extinct. The pool of mutants is then used to select those with
characteristics best fit for survival. The larger the pool, the bigger the
chance to adapt successfully. The species undergoes rapid evolutionary
changes until a new optimization is achieved and the species’ strategy
becomes conservation once again.
A similar situation is encountered in industry. A company or a whole
industry that has been optimized becomes conservative. You do not
want to change something that works well. However, a portfolio of mutations
is kept in store and will come out only in times of crisis.
Innovation, reorganizations, acquisitions, and other sometimes erratic
actions are all geared toward reoptimization. The organization hunts for
the optimal configuration to insure its survival.
The steel industry, for example, has been conservative for a long
time, but finally reached the crisis situation, confronted with stiff
competition from alternative new materials. In contrast, the electronics
industry is still very mutational. It behaves as a young industry searching
its way to optimization, which will ensure better chances for
survival. It also tries to increase the number of directions it explores,
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