PREDICTIONS â 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute

More documents

Recommendations

Info

9. REACHING THE CEILING EVERYWHERE It was mentioned earlier that car populations saturated their niche in society for most European countries, Japan and, the United States by the end of the twentieth century. As for the construction of paved roads and highways, the main effort is in maintaining and improving what already exists rather than adding more. Road construction in the United States enjoyed a surprising comeback in the early 1980s, but should now cease. Contrary to popular belief, paved roads “diffused” into society before cars; they reached the 90 percent level about a decade earlier, despite the fact that all these processes merged together as they saturated. In general, one could say that society has achieved the capacity that satisfies its needs for this means of transportation and is reluctant to invest further. We are at the end of the era in which people were preoccupied by the automobile. After all, air travel has been gaining importance relative to road travel ever since 1960, when the latter enjoyed the lion’s share of the transportation market (see Chapter Seven). In 1960 the automobile was at its zenith. In the division of U.S. intercity passenger traffic among trains, cars, and airplanes, shown in Figure 9.1, the percentage of traffic attributed to trains (buses were included in this category) has been systematically declining, while that of airplanes has been rising. The share of cars rose until 1960, reaching close to 90 percent, but then it began to decline. Cesare Marchetti believes that the automobile, in spite of its dominant position at the time, “felt” the rising threat of airplanes. 1 He whimsically adds that at the moment when the automobile’s market share started declining, cars were “masquerading themselves as airplanes with Mach 0.8 aerodynamics, ailerons, tails, and ‘cockpit’ instrument panels. The competitor is the devil—in this case the airplane—and as peasants still do in the Austrian Alps, to scare the devil, one has to dress like the devil.” ————————————————————————————– FIGURE 9.1 (next page) On the top we see the division among means of transportation competing for intercity passenger traffic in the United States. The vertical scale is logistic. The straight lines are extrapolations of fits on the data shown. The small circles show what happened since 1988. On the bottom, a 1959 Cadillac Cyclone is representative of car “behavior” at the moment when their dominance started being challenged by airplanes. Adapted from work carried out at the International <strong>Institute</strong> of Advanced Systems Analysis; photograph from General Motors. 200
9. REACHING THE CEILING EVERYWHERE DRESSING UP AS THE DEVIL Percentage of total passenger-miles traveled 2.50 92% 1.50 82% Cars 0.50 62% -0.50 38% -1.50 18% Planes 8% -2.50 -3.50 3% Trains + Buses 1% -4.50 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 201
Page 2:
PREDICTIONS - 10 Years Later Ten ye
Page 6 and 7:
Copyright © 2002 by Theodore Modis
Page 8 and 9:
CONTENTS Going West 53 Mesopotamia,
Page 10 and 11:
CONTENTS 10. IF I CAN, I WANT 225 W
Page 13 and 14:
PREFACE This book is about seeing t
Page 15 and 16:
PROLOGUE The fisherman starting his
Page 17 and 18:
PROLOGUE analogy between natural la
Page 19 and 20:
PROLOGUE animal population and foll
Page 21 and 22:
PROLOGUE stead; and those who belie
Page 23 and 24:
1 Science and Foretelling A barman
Page 25 and 26:
1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING prices,
Page 27 and 28:
1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING the futu
Page 29 and 30:
1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING Safety i
Page 31 and 32:
1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING But exam
Page 33 and 34:
1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING programm
Page 35 and 36:
1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING terpreta
Page 37 and 38:
1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING On the o
Page 39 and 40:
1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING terms of
Page 41 and 42:
1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING THE LAW
Page 43 and 44:
1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING resolved
Page 45 and 46:
1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING by hard
Page 47 and 48:
2 Needles in a Haystack HOW MUCH OR
Page 49 and 50:
2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK able to fi
Page 51 and 52:
2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK LEARNING F
Page 53 and 54:
2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK Intel’s
Page 55 and 56:
2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK looks like
Page 57 and 58:
2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK documentat
Page 59 and 60:
2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK MESOPOTAMI
Page 61:
2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK derstandin
Page 64 and 65:
3. INANIMATE PRODUCTION LIKE ANIMAT
Page 66 and 67:
Page 68 and 69:
Page 70 and 71:
Page 72 and 73:
Page 74 and 75:
Page 76 and 77:
Page 78 and 79:
Page 80 and 81:
Page 82 and 83:
Page 84 and 85:
Page 86 and 87:
4. THE RISE AND FALL OF CREATIVITY
Page 88 and 89:
Page 90 and 91:
Page 92 and 93:
Page 94 and 95:
Page 96 and 97:
Page 98 and 99:
Page 100 and 101:
Page 102 and 103:
Page 105 and 106:
5 Good Guys and Bad Guys Compete th
Page 107 and 108:
5. GOOD GUYS AND BAD GUYS COMPETE T
Page 109 and 110:
Page 111 and 112:
Page 113 and 114:
Page 115 and 116:
Page 117 and 118:
Page 119 and 120:
Page 121 and 122:
Page 123 and 124:
6 A Hard Fact of Life Natural growt
Page 125 and 126:
6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE avoid wrong
Page 127 and 128:
6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE one substitu
Page 129 and 130:
6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE place in a n
Page 131 and 132:
6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE DETERGENTS S
Page 133 and 134:
6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE The percenta
Page 135 and 136:
6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE During the l
Page 137 and 138:
6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE Another inno
Page 139 and 140:
6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE replacement.
Page 141 and 142:
6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE soldiers opp
Page 143:
6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE takes place
Page 146 and 147:
7. COMPETITION IS THE CREATOR AND T
Page 148 and 149:
Page 150 and 151:
Page 152 and 153: 7. COMPETITION IS THE CREATOR AND T
Page 178 and 179: 8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT consumption d
Page 180 and 181: 8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT compare the d
Page 182 and 183: 8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT seems to puls
Page 184 and 185: 8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT spikes stand
Page 186 and 187: 8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT Marchetti fit
Page 188 and 189: 8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT the predicted
Page 190 and 191: 8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT according to
Page 192 and 193: 8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT It is equally
Page 194 and 195: 8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT Finally, ther
Page 196 and 197: 8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT Ten Years Lat
Page 198 and 199: 8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT having the th
Page 200 and 201: 8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT The number fi
Page 204 and 205: Ten Years Later 9. REACHING THE CEI
Page 206 and 207: 9. REACHING THE CEILING EVERYWHERE
Page 222 and 223: Ten Years Later 9. REACHING THE CEI
Page 227 and 228: 10 If I Can, I Want Logistic functi
Page 229 and 230: 10. IF I CAN, I WANT ability become
Page 231 and 232: 10. IF I CAN, I WANT Christopher Co
Page 233 and 234: 10. IF I CAN, I WANT The search for
Page 235 and 236: 10. IF I CAN, I WANT look like an S
Page 237 and 238: 10. IF I CAN, I WANT producing chao
Page 239 and 240: 10. IF I CAN, I WANT First commerci
Page 241 and 242: 10. IF I CAN, I WANT In addition to
Page 243 and 244: 10. IF I CAN, I WANT Between two su
Page 245 and 246: 10. IF I CAN, I WANT The state depi
Page 247: 10. IF I CAN, I WANT to sustain one
Page 250 and 251: 11. FORECASTING DESTINY announced i
Page 252 and 253:
11. FORECASTING DESTINY The “natu
Page 254 and 255:
11. FORECASTING DESTINY In 1975, as
Page 256 and 257:
11. FORECASTING DESTINY The country
Page 258 and 259:
11. FORECASTING DESTINY feedback me
Page 260 and 261:
11. FORECASTING DESTINY States, rec
Page 262 and 263:
11. FORECASTING DESTINY in 1991 pro
Page 264 and 265:
11. FORECASTING DESTINY least four
Page 266 and 267:
11. FORECASTING DESTINY United Stat
Page 268 and 269:
11. FORECASTING DESTINY which would
Page 271 and 272:
EPILOGUE • • • We are in Cent
Page 273 and 274:
EPILOGUE Fads and media stories abo
Page 275 and 276:
APPENDICES 273
Page 277 and 278:
APPENDIX A The Predator-Prey Equati
Page 279 and 280:
APPENDIX A the two varieties will b
Page 281 and 282:
APPENDIX A By assigning weights to
Page 283 and 284:
APPENDIX B As an example, let us co
Page 285 and 286:
APPENDIX C Additional Figures THE N
Page 287 and 288:
APPENDIX C POPULATIONS OF CARS GROW
Page 289 and 290:
APPENDIX C RAILWAY NETWORKS GROW LI
Page 291 and 292:
APPENDIX C GOTHIC CATHEDRALS APPEND
Page 293 and 294:
APPENDIX C OIL PRODUCTION AND DISCO
Page 295 and 296:
APPENDIX C ERNEST HEMINGWAY (1899-1
Page 297 and 298:
APPENDIX C THE BIRTH RATE OF AMERIC
Page 299 and 300:
APPENDIX C 296
Page 301 and 302:
APPENDIX C WORLD WAR II FAVORED TUB
Page 303 and 304:
APPENDIX C THE EXIT OF STEAM ENGINE
Page 305 and 306:
APPENDIX C 302
Page 307 and 308:
APPENDIX C THE DESTRUCTION OF THRES
Page 309 and 310:
APPENDIX C WARS MAY INTERFERE WITH
Page 311 and 312:
APPENDIX C COMPETITION BETWEEN TRAN
Page 313 and 314:
APPENDIX C ANNUAL ENERGY CONSUMPTIO
Page 315 and 316:
APPENDIX C THE GROWTH OF AIR TRAFFI
Page 317 and 318:
APPENDIX C Annual registrations 6,0
Page 319 and 320:
APPENDIX C POPULARIZED DEATHS HAVE
Page 322 and 323:
NOTES AND SOURCES Prologue 1. Donel
Page 324 and 325:
NOTES AND SOURCES the Law Followed
Page 326 and 327:
NOTES AND SOURCES 4. For examples s
Page 328 and 329:
NOTES AND SOURCES bile Road to Tech
Page 330 and 331:
NOTES AND SOURCES 2. For a brief de
Page 332:
NOTES AND SOURCES Appendix B: Expec
Page 335 and 336:
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Bagwell, my initia
show all

PREDICTIONS â 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?

PREDICTIONS â 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute