PREDICTIONS â 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute

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10. IF I CAN, I WANT REACHING THE CEILING IN A DISCRETE SYSTEM MAY LEAD TO CHAOS STEADY STATE OSCILLATIONS CHAOS FIGURE 10.1 Three different solutions to the discrete form of the naturalgrowth equation. The initial rise corresponds to the familiar S-curve of the continuous case. What ensues after reaching the ceiling may be stable, oscillatory, or chaotic. ∗ ∗ Adapted from a graph by H. O. Peitgen and P. H. Richter in The Beauty of Fractals (Berlin and Heidelberg: Springer–Verlag, 1986). Reprinted by permission of the publisher. 236
10. IF I CAN, I WANT First commercialized in the 1930s, plywood started filling a niche in the American market. From 1970 onward a pattern of significant (plus or minus 20 percent) instabilities appeared, which Montrey and Utterback tried to explain one by one in terms of socioeconomic arguments. Given a certain pattern one can always correlate other phenomena to it. This type of pattern, however, could have been predicted a priori by chaos formulations. Billions of square feet 25 PLYWOOD FILLED A NICHE IN THE CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY 20 15 10 5 0 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 FIGURE 10.2 Annual plywood sales in the United States. Significant deviations from the S-curve appear when the ceiling is approached. The small circles show what happened in the last twenty years. ∗ ∗ Adapted from a figure by Henry Montrey and James Utterback in “Current Status and Future of Structural Panels in the Wood Products Industry,” Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol. 38 (1990): 15-35. Copyright 1990 by Elsevier Science Publishing Co., Inc. Reprinted by permission of the publisher. Recent data points come from the Statistical Abstract of the United States, U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 237
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PREDICTIONS - 10 Years Later Ten ye
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Copyright © 2002 by Theodore Modis
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CONTENTS Going West 53 Mesopotamia,
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CONTENTS 10. IF I CAN, I WANT 225 W
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PREFACE This book is about seeing t
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PROLOGUE The fisherman starting his
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PROLOGUE analogy between natural la
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PROLOGUE animal population and foll
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PROLOGUE stead; and those who belie
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1 Science and Foretelling A barman
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING prices,
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING the futu
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING Safety i
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING But exam
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING programm
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING terpreta
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING On the o
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING terms of
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING THE LAW
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING resolved
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING by hard
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2 Needles in a Haystack HOW MUCH OR
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK able to fi
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK LEARNING F
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK Intel’s
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK looks like
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK documentat
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK MESOPOTAMI
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK derstandin
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3. INANIMATE PRODUCTION LIKE ANIMAT
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4. THE RISE AND FALL OF CREATIVITY
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5 Good Guys and Bad Guys Compete th
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5. GOOD GUYS AND BAD GUYS COMPETE T
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6 A Hard Fact of Life Natural growt
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE avoid wrong
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE one substitu
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE place in a n
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE DETERGENTS S
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE The percenta
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE During the l
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE Another inno
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE replacement.
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE soldiers opp
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE takes place
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7. COMPETITION IS THE CREATOR AND T
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT consumption d
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT compare the d
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT seems to puls
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT spikes stand
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT Marchetti fit
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Page 202 and 203: 9. REACHING THE CEILING EVERYWHERE
Page 204 and 205: Ten Years Later 9. REACHING THE CEI
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Page 227 and 228: 10 If I Can, I Want Logistic functi
Page 229 and 230: 10. IF I CAN, I WANT ability become
Page 231 and 232: 10. IF I CAN, I WANT Christopher Co
Page 233 and 234: 10. IF I CAN, I WANT The search for
Page 235 and 236: 10. IF I CAN, I WANT look like an S
Page 237: 10. IF I CAN, I WANT producing chao
Page 241 and 242: 10. IF I CAN, I WANT In addition to
Page 243 and 244: 10. IF I CAN, I WANT Between two su
Page 245 and 246: 10. IF I CAN, I WANT The state depi
Page 247: 10. IF I CAN, I WANT to sustain one
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Page 256 and 257: 11. FORECASTING DESTINY The country
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Page 271 and 272: EPILOGUE • • • We are in Cent
Page 273 and 274: EPILOGUE Fads and media stories abo
Page 275 and 276: APPENDICES 273
Page 277 and 278: APPENDIX A The Predator-Prey Equati
Page 279 and 280: APPENDIX A the two varieties will b
Page 281 and 282: APPENDIX A By assigning weights to
Page 283 and 284: APPENDIX B As an example, let us co
Page 285 and 286: APPENDIX C Additional Figures THE N
Page 287 and 288: APPENDIX C POPULATIONS OF CARS GROW
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APPENDIX C RAILWAY NETWORKS GROW LI
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APPENDIX C GOTHIC CATHEDRALS APPEND
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APPENDIX C OIL PRODUCTION AND DISCO
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APPENDIX C ERNEST HEMINGWAY (1899-1
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APPENDIX C THE BIRTH RATE OF AMERIC
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APPENDIX C 296
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APPENDIX C WORLD WAR II FAVORED TUB
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APPENDIX C THE EXIT OF STEAM ENGINE
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APPENDIX C 302
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APPENDIX C THE DESTRUCTION OF THRES
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APPENDIX C WARS MAY INTERFERE WITH
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APPENDIX C COMPETITION BETWEEN TRAN
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APPENDIX C ANNUAL ENERGY CONSUMPTIO
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APPENDIX C THE GROWTH OF AIR TRAFFI
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APPENDIX C Annual registrations 6,0
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APPENDIX C POPULARIZED DEATHS HAVE
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NOTES AND SOURCES Prologue 1. Donel
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NOTES AND SOURCES the Law Followed
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NOTES AND SOURCES 4. For examples s
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NOTES AND SOURCES bile Road to Tech
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NOTES AND SOURCES 2. For a brief de
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NOTES AND SOURCES Appendix B: Expec
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Bagwell, my initia
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PREDICTIONS â 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute