PREDICTIONS – 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute

NOTES AND SOURCES
the Law Followed by a Population During Its Growth”), Correspondence
Mathématique et physique, vol. 10: 113–21.
2. E. W. Montroll, and N. S. Goel, “On the Volterra and Other Nonlinear Models
of Interacting Populations,” Review of Modern Physics, vol. 43(2)
(1971): 231. Also, M. Peschel, and W. Mendel, Leben wir in einer Volterra
Welt? (Berlin: Akademie Verlag, 1983).
3. Alfred J. Lotka, Elements of Physical Biology, (Baltimore, MD: Williams &
Wilkins Co., 1925).
4. See note 3 above.
5. T. W. L. Sanford, “Trends in Experimental High-Energy Physics,” Technological
Forecasting and Social Change, vol. 23: 25-40.
6. Pierre Vilar, A History of Gold and Money 1450-1920. (London; NLB,
1976). The data have been updated from the Statistical Abstract of the
United States, U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census; also
from the Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970,
vols. 1 and 2. (Washington, DC: Bureau of the Census, 1976).
7. Statistical Abstract of the United States, and Historical Statistics of the
United States, Colonial Times to 1970, (see note 6 above).
8. For a compilation of estimates see Cesare Marchetti, “The Future of Natural
Gas: A Darwinian Analysis,” a presentation given at the Task Force Meeting
“The Methane Age,” organized jointly by International Institute of Applied
Systems Analysis and the Hungarian Committee for Applied Systems Analysis,
Sopron, Hungary, May 13-16, 1986.
9. Severin-Georges Couneson, Les Saints nos frères (The Saints Our Brothers)
(Paris: Beauchesne, 1971).
10. These ideas have appeared in an informal note by Cesare Marchetti titled
“Penetration process: The Deep Past”, International Institute of Applied Systems
Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
Chapter Four: The Rise and Fall of Creativity
1. Cesare Marchetti, “Action Curves and Clockwork Geniuses,” International
Institute of Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, April 1985.
2. Jean and Brigitte Massin, Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart, (Paris: Fayard, 1978).
3. Mozart’s quotation is my translation of a letter excerpt in French cited by the
Massins. See note 2 above.
4. Paul Arthur Schilp, Albert Einstein als Philosoph und Naturforscher,
(Braunschweig, Germany: Friedr. Vieweg & Sohn Verlagsgesellschaft mbH,
1979).
5. See note 1 above.
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