PREDICTIONS â 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute

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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT It is equally questionable whether it is an economic boom that provokes outbursts of feminism, as may be reflected by an enhanced percentage of women among Nobel prize laureates. In Figure 8.4 we also see the percentage of women Nobel laureates oscillating with time. The period is compatible with fifty-six-years. The two peaks occur in the 1930s and again in the 1980s, coinciding with outbursts of feminism and trailing the corresponding booms. According to the energy clock, prosperity will reach a maximum again around 2025. Whether or not it stems from economic prosperity, the next rise of feminism should also be expected sometime halfway through the twenty-first century. The energy-consumption clock does not tick only for happy events. Society is anthropomorphic in its moods. In that respect it resembles its constituents, the people. It can be happy, depressed, passive, or aggressive, and this is reflected in the behavior of people who act out roles expressing the current mood of their society. It should be no surprise then to see that homicides are at their peak during desperate times and that homicide rates have gone up and down in tune with the fifty-six-year cycle. 13 Figure 8.5 shows that homicides in the United States reach their low during the growth years, the rate decreasing by a factor of two between recession and growth years. Even more pronounced—a factor of three between peak and valley—is the shift in preference for the murder weapon. The ratio of firearms to knives oscillates with practically the same frequency. Guns become prevalent toward the end of a boom. Stabbings become prevalent during recessions and reach their peak at the end of the dark days. ————————————————————————————– FIGURE 8.4 (next page) The graphs on life expectancy and the one-mile-run record have been obtained in a way similar to the energy consumption, namely, as a percentage deviation of the data from a fitted trend. The number of women Nobel laureates is expressed as a percentage of all laureates in a decade. ∗ For the case of cirrhosis the annual mortality is used. The black dots connected by an intermittent line represent updates. ∗ The graph for women Nobel Laureates has been adapted Theodore Modis, “Competition and Forecasts for Nobel Prize Awards,” Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol. 34 (1988): 95-102. Copyright 1988 by Elsevier Science Publishing Co., Inc. 190
8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT MORE PHENOMENA PULSATING WITH THE ENERGY CONSUMPTION CYCLE Energy Consumption Boom Boom - 20 - 10 - 0 - -10 % Deviation... - -20 1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 1.04 4 Life Expectancy Cirrhosis of the Liver One-Mile Run 1.02 2 10 0.98 -2 0.96 -4 17 15 13 11 9 7 5 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 8% % Deviation... Annual deaths per ... 100,000 population... % Deviation... Women Nobel laureates 6% 4% 2% % of Total 191
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PREDICTIONS - 10 Years Later Ten ye
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Copyright © 2002 by Theodore Modis
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CONTENTS Going West 53 Mesopotamia,
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CONTENTS 10. IF I CAN, I WANT 225 W
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PREFACE This book is about seeing t
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PROLOGUE The fisherman starting his
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PROLOGUE analogy between natural la
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PROLOGUE animal population and foll
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PROLOGUE stead; and those who belie
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1 Science and Foretelling A barman
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING prices,
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING the futu
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING Safety i
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING But exam
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING programm
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING terpreta
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING On the o
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING terms of
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING THE LAW
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING resolved
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING by hard
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2 Needles in a Haystack HOW MUCH OR
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK able to fi
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK LEARNING F
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK Intel’s
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK looks like
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK documentat
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK MESOPOTAMI
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK derstandin
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3. INANIMATE PRODUCTION LIKE ANIMAT
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4. THE RISE AND FALL OF CREATIVITY
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5 Good Guys and Bad Guys Compete th
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5. GOOD GUYS AND BAD GUYS COMPETE T
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6 A Hard Fact of Life Natural growt
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE avoid wrong
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE one substitu
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE place in a n
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE DETERGENTS S
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE The percenta
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE During the l
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE Another inno
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE replacement.
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT Between two su
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT The state depi
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT to sustain one
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY announced i
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY The “natu
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY In 1975, as
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY The country
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY feedback me
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY States, rec
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY in 1991 pro
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY least four
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY United Stat
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY which would
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EPILOGUE • • • We are in Cent
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EPILOGUE Fads and media stories abo
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APPENDICES 273
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APPENDIX A The Predator-Prey Equati
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APPENDIX A the two varieties will b
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APPENDIX A By assigning weights to
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APPENDIX B As an example, let us co
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APPENDIX C Additional Figures THE N
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APPENDIX C POPULATIONS OF CARS GROW
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APPENDIX C RAILWAY NETWORKS GROW LI
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APPENDIX C GOTHIC CATHEDRALS APPEND
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APPENDIX C OIL PRODUCTION AND DISCO
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APPENDIX C ERNEST HEMINGWAY (1899-1
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APPENDIX C THE BIRTH RATE OF AMERIC
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APPENDIX C 296
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APPENDIX C WORLD WAR II FAVORED TUB
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APPENDIX C THE EXIT OF STEAM ENGINE
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APPENDIX C 302
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APPENDIX C THE DESTRUCTION OF THRES
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APPENDIX C WARS MAY INTERFERE WITH
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APPENDIX C COMPETITION BETWEEN TRAN
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APPENDIX C ANNUAL ENERGY CONSUMPTIO
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APPENDIX C THE GROWTH OF AIR TRAFFI
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APPENDIX C Annual registrations 6,0
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APPENDIX C POPULARIZED DEATHS HAVE
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NOTES AND SOURCES Prologue 1. Donel
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NOTES AND SOURCES the Law Followed
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NOTES AND SOURCES 4. For examples s
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NOTES AND SOURCES bile Road to Tech
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NOTES AND SOURCES 2. For a brief de
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NOTES AND SOURCES Appendix B: Expec
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Bagwell, my initia
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PREDICTIONS â 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute