PREDICTIONS – 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute

6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE
Fisher and Pry have shown that synthetic replaced natural rubber at
an accelerated rate during the war years (Appendix C, Figure 6.6). But
as soon as the war ended, foreign sources of natural rubber became
available again, and the substitution rate dropped. From then on the
substitution process continued at a rate similar to other replacements,
such as margarine for butter and synthetic for natural fibers. The deviation,
caused by the necessities of the war, disappeared leaving no trace
when life got back to normal.
The cases presented in this section depict deviations from the description
of the natural substitution model. In the work of economists
and meteorologists such a situation—evidence against a model—would
have resulted in modifications of the model itself. With the process of
natural growth in competition, however, the theory is fundamental; deviations,
whenever they occur, must be explained in the way the model
is used rather than raise questions about its validity.
Ten Years Later
The solid-black points in Appendix C Figure 6.6 show that
none of the three substitution processes finally reached 100%
completion. They all stopped at around 2/3. Contrary to what
may have been expected from the law of natural competition
one-to-one substitutions do not always proceed to completion.
A “locked” portion of the market share may resist substitution.
In our three examples this locked portion was about 1/3 of the
market; it could be larger. Competitive substitutions are natural
growth processes and do follow S-curves, but the
newcomer rarely replaces the incumbent completely.
THE SWEDES ARE COMING
• • •
October 1956 in Hungary. Russian tanks are rumbling on
the streets of Budapest, crushing the popular uprising. There
are bloody clashes when students, workers, and Hungarian
138