PREDICTIONS – 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute

7. COMPETITION IS THE CREATOR AND THE REGULATOR
Figure 7.3 depicts the discovery of the stable elements over the centuries.
The graph at the top shows the number of elements known at any given
time. In Chapter Two it was suggested that a single S-curve can approximately
describe the overall set of data points in the discovery of stable
elements. Taking a closer look here we may distinguish four smaller S-
curves in cascade. The lower graph shows the life cycles corresponding to
each period, depicting the number of elements discovered per decade.
The emerging picture presents peaks of activity similar to those seen in
Mensch’s classification of basic innovations. 6
THE STABLE ELEMENTS WERE DISCOVERED IN CLUSTERS
FIGURE 7.3 The small circles indicate the number of stable chemical element
known at a given time. The S-curves are fits over limited historical windows,
while the dotted lines below represent the corresponding life cycles. The arrows
point at the center of each wave hinting at some regularity. ∗
∗ The data came from The American Institute of Physics Handbook, 3rd ed. (New York:
McGraw-Hill).
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