PREDICTIONS â 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute

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3. INANIMATE PRODUCTION LIKE ANIMATE REPRODUCTION The growth of a population—be it rabbits, cars, computers, bacteria, human cells, supertankers, Gothic cathedrals, atom smashers, barrels of oil, or Christian saints—may display the S-shaped pattern characteristic of natural growth. Conversely, if a population evolves along an S-curve, the growth process it follows must be a natural one. In either case the life cycle of the process will not remain incomplete under normal conditions. Consequently, missing data can be guessed both in the future (forecasting) and in the past (backcasting) by constructing the complete symmetric S-curve. 82
4 The Rise and Fall of Creativity The decade of the sixties witnessed cultural waves which rocked American society with considerable frequency and intensity: rock ‘n’ roll music, protests against the war in Viet Nam, the youth rebellion, and the civil rights movement. Less sharp but equally permeating were more intellectual influences such as Marshall McLuhan’s “the medium is the message,” Buckminster Fuller’s cosmology, and a galloping epidemic of esoteric and spiritual teachings, including the notion that all physical ailments have psychosomatic causes. Decades later the passage of time has diminished the amplitude of exaggerated reactions to these cultural upheavals. Today, psychosomatic treatment for a torn tendon may appeal to only a few, but a correlation between high productivity and a good state of mental and physical health would not surprise most people. Cesare Marchetti was the first to associate the evolution of a person’s creativity and productivity with natural growth. He assumed that a work of art or science is the final expression of a “pulse of action” that originates somewhere in the depths of the brain and works its way through all intermediate stages to produce a creation. He then studied the number of these creations over time and found that its growth follows S-curves. Each curve presupposed a final target, a niche size he 83
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PREDICTIONS - 10 Years Later Ten ye
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Copyright © 2002 by Theodore Modis
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CONTENTS Going West 53 Mesopotamia,
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CONTENTS 10. IF I CAN, I WANT 225 W
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PREFACE This book is about seeing t
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PROLOGUE The fisherman starting his
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PROLOGUE analogy between natural la
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PROLOGUE animal population and foll
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PROLOGUE stead; and those who belie
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1 Science and Foretelling A barman
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING prices,
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING the futu
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING Safety i
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING But exam
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Page 41 and 42: 1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING THE LAW
Page 43 and 44: 1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING resolved
Page 45 and 46: 1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING by hard
Page 47 and 48: 2 Needles in a Haystack HOW MUCH OR
Page 49 and 50: 2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK able to fi
Page 51 and 52: 2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK LEARNING F
Page 53 and 54: 2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK Intel’s
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE During the l
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE Another inno
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE replacement.
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE soldiers opp
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE takes place
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7. COMPETITION IS THE CREATOR AND T
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT consumption d
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT compare the d
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT seems to puls
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT spikes stand
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT Marchetti fit
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT the predicted
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT according to
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT It is equally
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT Finally, ther
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT Ten Years Lat
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT having the th
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT The number fi
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9. REACHING THE CEILING EVERYWHERE
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Ten Years Later 9. REACHING THE CEI
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Ten Years Later 9. REACHING THE CEI
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10 If I Can, I Want Logistic functi
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT ability become
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT Christopher Co
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT The search for
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT look like an S
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT producing chao
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT First commerci
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT In addition to
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT Between two su
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT The state depi
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT to sustain one
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY announced i
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY The “natu
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY In 1975, as
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY The country
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY feedback me
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY States, rec
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY in 1991 pro
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY least four
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY United Stat
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY which would
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EPILOGUE • • • We are in Cent
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EPILOGUE Fads and media stories abo
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APPENDICES 273
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APPENDIX A The Predator-Prey Equati
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APPENDIX A the two varieties will b
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APPENDIX A By assigning weights to
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APPENDIX B As an example, let us co
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APPENDIX C Additional Figures THE N
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APPENDIX C POPULATIONS OF CARS GROW
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APPENDIX C RAILWAY NETWORKS GROW LI
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APPENDIX C GOTHIC CATHEDRALS APPEND
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APPENDIX C OIL PRODUCTION AND DISCO
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APPENDIX C ERNEST HEMINGWAY (1899-1
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APPENDIX C THE BIRTH RATE OF AMERIC
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APPENDIX C 296
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APPENDIX C WORLD WAR II FAVORED TUB
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APPENDIX C THE EXIT OF STEAM ENGINE
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APPENDIX C 302
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APPENDIX C THE DESTRUCTION OF THRES
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APPENDIX C WARS MAY INTERFERE WITH
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APPENDIX C COMPETITION BETWEEN TRAN
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APPENDIX C ANNUAL ENERGY CONSUMPTIO
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APPENDIX C THE GROWTH OF AIR TRAFFI
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APPENDIX C Annual registrations 6,0
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APPENDIX C POPULARIZED DEATHS HAVE
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NOTES AND SOURCES Prologue 1. Donel
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NOTES AND SOURCES the Law Followed
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NOTES AND SOURCES 4. For examples s
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NOTES AND SOURCES bile Road to Tech
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NOTES AND SOURCES 2. For a brief de
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NOTES AND SOURCES Appendix B: Expec
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Bagwell, my initia
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