PREDICTIONS – 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute

4. THE RISE AND FALL OF CREATIVITY
representing early missing data, which is determined as equal to thirteen.
It means that there are thirteen publications missing for “things” he
created between the ages of fifteen and twenty-one which deserved to
have been published. Looking into Einstein’s biography we find evidence
that would support such a conclusion. Even though he did not
excel in school performance, by the age of eighteen he had devoured the
original writings of most great physicists, including James C. Maxwell,
Isaac Newton, Gustav R. Kirchhoff, Hermann Helmholtz and Heinrich R.
Hertz.
But the interesting twist of Figure 4.2 is at the other end, toward Einstein’s
death. His perceived potential as determined by the fit of the
S-curve is 279 valid scientific publications. When he died he had
ALBERT EINSTEIN (1879-1955)
FIGURE 4.2 Einstein’s cumulative publications and the best fitting S-curve. The
fit indicates 13 publications “missing” between the beginning of the curve, 1894,
and Einstein’s first publication in 1900. The ceiling is estimated as 279.
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