PREDICTIONS â 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute

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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT Finally, there is also a form of sexual discrimination resonating with the same frequency, the ratio of male to female victims in homicides in the United States. There is a pronounced tendency to kill men—mostly stabbings—when times are tough and recession becomes more and more of a reality. Women are a more frequent target of killings—mostly shootings—during the growth years. The number of female victims reaches a peak just as we enter a boom. All the cases we have seen in this chapter point to recurrent patterns of behavior in approximately fifty-six-year intervals. I am convinced that more such patterns could be found if one becomes sensitive to this underlying pulsation; for example, a revival of anti-Semitism through neo-Nazi activities in Europe can be seen as a fifty-six-year echo of the late 1930s. But using only the patterns of behavior that have been charted in this chapter, I might venture to paint a picture of the behavior of society as it is rocked by the fifty-six-year wave. The sequence of events is disturbing, if familiar, even though chronological succession may not necessarily be indicative of a causal relationship: During periods of economic growth, criminality is low and so are bank failures. People seem to be busy working, building, increasing their prosperity. As we enter the boom years women become the preferred target for murder. Living through the prosperous years sees people starting to like guns, drink more alcohol, and break running records. Affluence by now does more harm than good, for life expectancy hits a low in its improvement. At the end of the boom, guns are ten times more popular than knives as murder weapons. A little afterwards, energy prices flare up like fireworks signaling the end of fun and games. Later feminism flourishes and then we enter the recession. Well into the recession bank failures soar and so do murders. Killings reach a maximum as life becomes difficult; the targets are men this time and the killers are gradually developing a taste for the knife. There is no bad without some good in it, however. By the end of the recession, life expectancy shows the highest gains, even if competitive sports have suffered. Technological discoveries and innovations abound again, while criminality decreases. The overall sobering up of the society serves as a natural preparation of the next growth phase lying ahead. And thus the cycle begins to repeat itself. 192
8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT MORBID ACTIVITIES ALSO RESONATE WITH THE SAME RHYTHM Boom Boom Energy Consumption % Deviation... 1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 12 Homicides 10 8 6 4 2 0 0.6 Annual number per…. 100,000 population….. Murder w eapon 0.4 0.2 0 Knife to gun ratio…. 0.35 Homicides by sex 0.3 0.25 Female to male ratio…. FIGURE 8.5 Below the energy consumption clock, we see the annual rate of homicides. In the middle, the ratio of knife to gun as murder weapon, and on the bottom the ratio of women to men as the victim. The black dots connected by an intermittent line represent updates. 0.2 193
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PREDICTIONS - 10 Years Later Ten ye
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Copyright © 2002 by Theodore Modis
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CONTENTS Going West 53 Mesopotamia,
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CONTENTS 10. IF I CAN, I WANT 225 W
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PREFACE This book is about seeing t
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PROLOGUE The fisherman starting his
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PROLOGUE analogy between natural la
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PROLOGUE animal population and foll
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PROLOGUE stead; and those who belie
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1 Science and Foretelling A barman
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING prices,
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING the futu
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING Safety i
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING But exam
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING programm
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING terpreta
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING On the o
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING terms of
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING THE LAW
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING resolved
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING by hard
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2 Needles in a Haystack HOW MUCH OR
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK able to fi
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK LEARNING F
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK Intel’s
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK looks like
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK documentat
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK MESOPOTAMI
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK derstandin
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3. INANIMATE PRODUCTION LIKE ANIMAT
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4. THE RISE AND FALL OF CREATIVITY
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5 Good Guys and Bad Guys Compete th
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5. GOOD GUYS AND BAD GUYS COMPETE T
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6 A Hard Fact of Life Natural growt
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE avoid wrong
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE one substitu
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE place in a n
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE DETERGENTS S
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE The percenta
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE During the l
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE Another inno
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE replacement.
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE soldiers opp
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT The state depi
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT to sustain one
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY announced i
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY The “natu
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY In 1975, as
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY The country
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY feedback me
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY States, rec
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY in 1991 pro
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY least four
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY United Stat
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY which would
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EPILOGUE • • • We are in Cent
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EPILOGUE Fads and media stories abo
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APPENDICES 273
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APPENDIX A The Predator-Prey Equati
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APPENDIX A the two varieties will b
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APPENDIX A By assigning weights to
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APPENDIX B As an example, let us co
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APPENDIX C Additional Figures THE N
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APPENDIX C POPULATIONS OF CARS GROW
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APPENDIX C RAILWAY NETWORKS GROW LI
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APPENDIX C GOTHIC CATHEDRALS APPEND
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APPENDIX C OIL PRODUCTION AND DISCO
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APPENDIX C ERNEST HEMINGWAY (1899-1
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APPENDIX C THE BIRTH RATE OF AMERIC
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APPENDIX C 296
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APPENDIX C WORLD WAR II FAVORED TUB
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APPENDIX C THE EXIT OF STEAM ENGINE
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APPENDIX C 302
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APPENDIX C THE DESTRUCTION OF THRES
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APPENDIX C WARS MAY INTERFERE WITH
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APPENDIX C COMPETITION BETWEEN TRAN
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APPENDIX C ANNUAL ENERGY CONSUMPTIO
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APPENDIX C THE GROWTH OF AIR TRAFFI
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APPENDIX C Annual registrations 6,0
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APPENDIX C POPULARIZED DEATHS HAVE
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NOTES AND SOURCES Prologue 1. Donel
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NOTES AND SOURCES the Law Followed
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NOTES AND SOURCES 4. For examples s
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NOTES AND SOURCES bile Road to Tech
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NOTES AND SOURCES 2. For a brief de
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NOTES AND SOURCES Appendix B: Expec
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Bagwell, my initia
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PREDICTIONS â 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute