PREDICTIONS â 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute

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9. REACHING THE CEILING EVERYWHERE WHEN MANY TECHNOLOGICAL PROCESSES REACH SATURATION TOGETHER THEY PRODUCE A RECESSION 1.9 20% 1.8 1.7 1.6 0% 1.5 1.4 1.3 -20% 1.2 1.1 100% 1 90% 0.9 80% 0.8 70% 0.7 60% 0.6 50% 0.5 40% 0.4 30% 0.3 20% 0.2 10% 0.1 The energy consumption "clock" 0% 0 1740 1760 1780 1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 FIGURE 9.2 At the top we see again the idealized cycle of energy consumption as obtained in Chapter 8. At the bottom we see S-curves describing technological growth and substitution processes all normalized to reach 100% when they are completed. The rising part of most curves coincides with the upswing of the cycle indicating growth and prosperity, while “coordinated” saturation coincides with economic recession. Boom Recession Boom Recession 204
9. REACHING THE CEILING EVERYWHERE Three waves of industrial growth are outlined by the bundling of the curves. The times when the curves merge indicate barriers to economic development. Growth processes do not traverse them. Exceptionally, a process like air traffic, may “tunnel through” the economic recession and continue growing into the next cycle. More examples are mentioned in the table. These S-curves stretch across the blank areas between the three bundles of lines in Figure 9.2 (Appendix C, Figure 9.2). Between the first wave (rather poorly defined because of insufficient cases) and the second wave, it was canal construction in Russia that continued developing. Between the second and the third waves, the main traversing process was the construction of oil pipelines in the United States. Oil technology kept growing, unaffected by the recession of the 1930s, a period dominated by steam/coal technology. The pipeline projects contributed significantly to the recovery from that major recession. During the recession of the 1990s, the processes that will continue growing and thus contributing to the economic recovery are the buildup of airway connections between American cities and pollution abatement (to be discussed later in this chapter.) To a lesser extent natural gas pipelines, nuclear energy power stations, and information technology will also contribute to the recovery of the economy. On a worldwide scale, among the industrialization activities that will still be incomplete by the end of the century are road construction in the ex-U.S.S.R. countries, and car populations in Canada and New Zealand. It should also be noted that the clustering of the saturation levels of the various industries and the technologies behind them is ultimately related to the clustering of basic innovations mentioned in the last chapter. While the appearance of basic innovations leads to growth and prosperity, innovations that come into being together become exhausted together, producing low growth, reduction in employment, and increased competitiveness. During a major recession the aging of the old innovation throws a veil of temporariness on enterprising endeavors. Products are going through progressively shorter life cycles in a desperate quest for differentiation when the technologies at hand no longer justify it. The lifetimes of companies themselves are being reduced, with a growing number of mergers and buy-outs. (Even the cycle of personal 205
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PREDICTIONS - 10 Years Later Ten ye
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Copyright © 2002 by Theodore Modis
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CONTENTS Going West 53 Mesopotamia,
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CONTENTS 10. IF I CAN, I WANT 225 W
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PREFACE This book is about seeing t
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PROLOGUE The fisherman starting his
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PROLOGUE analogy between natural la
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PROLOGUE animal population and foll
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PROLOGUE stead; and those who belie
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1 Science and Foretelling A barman
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING prices,
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING the futu
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING Safety i
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING But exam
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING programm
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING terpreta
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING On the o
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING terms of
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING THE LAW
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING resolved
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING by hard
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2 Needles in a Haystack HOW MUCH OR
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK able to fi
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK LEARNING F
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK Intel’s
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK looks like
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK documentat
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK MESOPOTAMI
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK derstandin
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3. INANIMATE PRODUCTION LIKE ANIMAT
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4. THE RISE AND FALL OF CREATIVITY
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5 Good Guys and Bad Guys Compete th
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5. GOOD GUYS AND BAD GUYS COMPETE T
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6 A Hard Fact of Life Natural growt
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE avoid wrong
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE one substitu
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE place in a n
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE DETERGENTS S
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE The percenta
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE During the l
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE Another inno
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE replacement.
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE soldiers opp
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE takes place
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7. COMPETITION IS THE CREATOR AND T
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY The country
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY feedback me
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY States, rec
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY in 1991 pro
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY least four
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY United Stat
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY which would
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EPILOGUE • • • We are in Cent
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EPILOGUE Fads and media stories abo
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APPENDICES 273
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APPENDIX A The Predator-Prey Equati
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APPENDIX A the two varieties will b
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APPENDIX A By assigning weights to
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APPENDIX B As an example, let us co
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APPENDIX C Additional Figures THE N
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APPENDIX C POPULATIONS OF CARS GROW
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APPENDIX C RAILWAY NETWORKS GROW LI
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APPENDIX C GOTHIC CATHEDRALS APPEND
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APPENDIX C OIL PRODUCTION AND DISCO
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APPENDIX C ERNEST HEMINGWAY (1899-1
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APPENDIX C THE BIRTH RATE OF AMERIC
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APPENDIX C 296
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APPENDIX C WORLD WAR II FAVORED TUB
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APPENDIX C THE EXIT OF STEAM ENGINE
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APPENDIX C 302
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APPENDIX C THE DESTRUCTION OF THRES
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APPENDIX C WARS MAY INTERFERE WITH
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APPENDIX C COMPETITION BETWEEN TRAN
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APPENDIX C ANNUAL ENERGY CONSUMPTIO
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APPENDIX C THE GROWTH OF AIR TRAFFI
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APPENDIX C Annual registrations 6,0
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APPENDIX C POPULARIZED DEATHS HAVE
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NOTES AND SOURCES Prologue 1. Donel
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NOTES AND SOURCES the Law Followed
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NOTES AND SOURCES 4. For examples s
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NOTES AND SOURCES bile Road to Tech
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NOTES AND SOURCES 2. For a brief de
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NOTES AND SOURCES Appendix B: Expec
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Bagwell, my initia
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PREDICTIONS â 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute