PREDICTIONS â 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute

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NOTES AND SOURCES Prologue 1. Donella H. Meadows, Dennis L. Meadows, Jorgen Randers, William W. Behrens III, The Limits to Growth, (New York: Universe Books, New York, 1972). 2. Cesare Marchetti, “On 10 12 : A Check on Earth Carrying Capacity for Man.” Report RR-78-7, May 1978, International Institute of Advanced Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria; and in Energy, vol. 4, (1979): 1107–17. Chapter One: Science and Foretelling 1. James Gleick, Chaos, (New York: Viking, 1988). 2. Spyros Makridakis, et al. “The Accuracy of Extrapolation (Time Series) Methods: Results of a Forecasting Competition,” Journal of Forecasting, vol.1, no. 2, (1982): 111–53. 3. As cited in Derek J. De Solla Price, Little Science, Big Science...and Beyond (New York: Columbia University Press, 1986). 4. Elliott W. Montroll and Wade W. Badger, Introduction to Quantitative Aspects of Social Phenomena, (New York: Gordon and Breach Science Publishers, 1974). 5. A similar graph has been reported by Cesare Marchetti in 1982. The data in this graph come from the Statistical Abstract of the United 319
NOTES AND SOURCES States, U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census; also from the Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970, vols. 1 and 2 (Washington DC: Bureau of the Census, 1976). 6. John D. Williams, “The Nonsense about Safe Driving,” Fortune, vol. LVIII, no. 3 (September 1958): 118–19. 7. Patent pending. 8. Isaac Asimov, Exploring the Earth and The Cosmos, (New York: Crown Publishers, 1982). 9. Good News Bible, Today’s English Version, The Bible Society, Collins/Fontana. 10. J. C. Fisher, and R. H. Pry, “A Simple Substitution Model of Technological Change,” Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol. 3, no. 1, (1971): 75-88, and M.J. Cetron and C. Ralph, eds., Industrial Applications of Technological Forecasting, (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1971). 11. Alain Debecker and Theodore Modis, “Uncertainties in S-curve Logistic Fits,” Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol. 46, (1994): 153– 73. 12. P. D. Ouspensky, In the Search of the Miraculous, (New York: Harcourt, Brace and World, 1949). Chapter Two: Needles in a Haystack 1. An S-curve has been fitted on the data found in T. G. Whiston, “Life Is Logarithmic,” in J. Rose, ed., Advances in Cybernetics and Systems, (London: Gordon and Breach, 1974). 2. Theodore Modis, “Learning from Experience in Positioning New Computer Products,’ Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol. 41, no. 4 (1992). 3. The data here come from The World Almanac & Book of Facts, 1988 (New York: Newspaper Enterprise Association, Inc., 1987). 4. Historical Atlas, (Paris: Librairie Académique Perrin, 1987). Chapter Three: Inanimate Production Like Animate Reproduction 1. P. F. Verhulst, “Recherches mathématiques sur la loi d’Accroissement de la Population” (“Mathematical Research on the Law of Population Growth”), Nouveaux Memoires de l’Académie Royale des Sciences et des Belles- Lettres de Bruxelles, vol. 18 (1945): 1-40; also in P. F. Verhulst, “Notice sur la loi que la population suit dans son accroissement” (“Announcement on 320
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PREDICTIONS - 10 Years Later Ten ye
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Copyright © 2002 by Theodore Modis
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CONTENTS Going West 53 Mesopotamia,
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CONTENTS 10. IF I CAN, I WANT 225 W
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PREFACE This book is about seeing t
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PROLOGUE The fisherman starting his
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PROLOGUE analogy between natural la
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PROLOGUE animal population and foll
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PROLOGUE stead; and those who belie
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1 Science and Foretelling A barman
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING prices,
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING the futu
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING Safety i
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING But exam
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING programm
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING terpreta
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING On the o
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING terms of
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING THE LAW
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING resolved
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING by hard
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2 Needles in a Haystack HOW MUCH OR
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK able to fi
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK LEARNING F
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK Intel’s
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK looks like
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK documentat
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK MESOPOTAMI
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK derstandin
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3. INANIMATE PRODUCTION LIKE ANIMAT
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4. THE RISE AND FALL OF CREATIVITY
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5 Good Guys and Bad Guys Compete th
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5. GOOD GUYS AND BAD GUYS COMPETE T
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6 A Hard Fact of Life Natural growt
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE avoid wrong
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE one substitu
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE place in a n
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE DETERGENTS S
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE The percenta
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE During the l
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE Another inno
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE replacement.
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE soldiers opp
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE takes place
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7. COMPETITION IS THE CREATOR AND T
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT consumption d
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT compare the d
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT seems to puls
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT spikes stand
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT Marchetti fit
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT the predicted
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT according to
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT It is equally
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT Finally, ther
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT Ten Years Lat
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT having the th
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT The number fi
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9. REACHING THE CEILING EVERYWHERE
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Ten Years Later 9. REACHING THE CEI
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Ten Years Later 9. REACHING THE CEI
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10 If I Can, I Want Logistic functi
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT ability become
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT Christopher Co
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT The search for
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT look like an S
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT producing chao
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT First commerci
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT In addition to
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT Between two su
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT The state depi
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT to sustain one
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY announced i
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY The “natu
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY In 1975, as
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY The country
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY feedback me
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY States, rec
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY in 1991 pro
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY least four
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY United Stat
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY which would
Page 271 and 272: EPILOGUE • • • We are in Cent
Page 273 and 274: EPILOGUE Fads and media stories abo
Page 275 and 276: APPENDICES 273
Page 277 and 278: APPENDIX A The Predator-Prey Equati
Page 279 and 280: APPENDIX A the two varieties will b
Page 281 and 282: APPENDIX A By assigning weights to
Page 283 and 284: APPENDIX B As an example, let us co
Page 285 and 286: APPENDIX C Additional Figures THE N
Page 287 and 288: APPENDIX C POPULATIONS OF CARS GROW
Page 289 and 290: APPENDIX C RAILWAY NETWORKS GROW LI
Page 291 and 292: APPENDIX C GOTHIC CATHEDRALS APPEND
Page 293 and 294: APPENDIX C OIL PRODUCTION AND DISCO
Page 295 and 296: APPENDIX C ERNEST HEMINGWAY (1899-1
Page 297 and 298: APPENDIX C THE BIRTH RATE OF AMERIC
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Page 301 and 302: APPENDIX C WORLD WAR II FAVORED TUB
Page 303 and 304: APPENDIX C THE EXIT OF STEAM ENGINE
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Page 307 and 308: APPENDIX C THE DESTRUCTION OF THRES
Page 309 and 310: APPENDIX C WARS MAY INTERFERE WITH
Page 311 and 312: APPENDIX C COMPETITION BETWEEN TRAN
Page 313 and 314: APPENDIX C ANNUAL ENERGY CONSUMPTIO
Page 315 and 316: APPENDIX C THE GROWTH OF AIR TRAFFI
Page 317 and 318: APPENDIX C Annual registrations 6,0
Page 319 and 320: APPENDIX C POPULARIZED DEATHS HAVE
Page 324 and 325: NOTES AND SOURCES the Law Followed
Page 326 and 327: NOTES AND SOURCES 4. For examples s
Page 328 and 329: NOTES AND SOURCES bile Road to Tech
Page 330 and 331: NOTES AND SOURCES 2. For a brief de
Page 332: NOTES AND SOURCES Appendix B: Expec
Page 335 and 336: ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Bagwell, my initia
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PREDICTIONS â 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute