PREDICTIONS – 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute

NOTES AND SOURCES
Chapter Nine: Reaching the Ceiling Everywhere
1. Cesare Marchetti, “The Automobile in a System Context: The Past 80 Years
and the Next 20 Years,” Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol.
23 (1983): 3-23.
2. The data on subway inaugurations used for the determination of these curves
come from Dominique and Mechèle Frémy, QUID 1991, (Paris: Robert Lafont,
1991), p. 1634.
3. Theodore Modis and Alain Debecker, “Innovation in the Computer Industry,”
Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol. 33 (1988): 267–
78.
4. The airway curve mentioned here is calculated by me and shown in Figure
9.5.
5. The total air traffic curve mentioned here is calculated by me and shown in
Figure 9.1
6. Michael Royston, private communication.
7. This ceiling has been estimated in Cesare Marchetti, “Fifty-Year Pulsation in
Human Affairs, Analysis of Some Physical Indicators,” Futures, vol. 17, no.
3 (1986): 376–88.
8. The name Maglevs and their role as presented here have been suggested by
Cesare Marchetti; see note 7 above.
9. John Doe’s (pseudonym) Report from Iron Mountain on the Possibility and
Desirability of Peace, (New York: The Dial Press, 1967).
10. Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970, vols. 1 and
2, Bureau of the Census, Washington, DC, and the Statistical Abstract of the
United States, U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
11. Yacov Zahavi, Martin J. Beckmann and Thomas F. Golob, The Unified
Mechanism of Travel (UMOT)/Urban Interactions, (Washington, DC: U.S.
Department of transportation, 1981).
12. The data source is the same as note 10 above.
13. John Naisbitt, Megatrends, (New York: Warner Books, 1982).
14. Cesare Marchetti, “On Transport in Europe: The Last 50 Years and the Next
20,” invited paper, First Forum on Future European Transport, Munich,
September 14-16, 1987.
Chapter Ten: If I Can, I want
1. P. Ouspensky, In Search of the Miraculous, (New York: Harcourt, Brace
and World, 1949).
326