PREDICTIONS â 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute

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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE THE OVERALL PERSONAL “VEHICLE” MARKET KEPT INCREASING EVEN AS THE USE OF HORSES DECLINED Thousands of units 100000 10000 1000 Horses Cars Total Fitted S-curve 100 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 FIGURE 6.2 The numbers of nonfarming horses (including mules) and cars in the United States. The vertical scale is logarithmic to accommodate the manyfold growth. The sum of horses plus cars grew practically unaffected across the substitution period and is amenable to an S-curve fit (thick gray line). ∗ Other evidence may be to know independently that in a certain geographical or market segment these two are the only companies that offer products. In the latter case the geographical or market segment constitutes a niche, but whether or not a substitution process is taking ∗ A graph of similar nature was first published by Nebosja Nakicenovic in “The Automotive Road to Technological Change: Diffusion of the Automobile as a Process of Technological Substitution,” Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol. 29: 309–40. Copyright 1986 by Elsevier Science Publishing Co., Inc. 126
6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE place in a natural way will depend on how closely the market share evolution resembles an S-shaped pattern. This pattern can be made to appear as a straight line when viewed through the appropriate “eyepiece.” STRAIGHT LINES IN NATURE A popular belief claims that there are no straight lines in nature. Precise mathematical shapes such as circles, flat surfaces, right angles, and ellipses, are not encountered during a stroll through the woods. These shapes are thought of as human inventions; therefore, they are stamped “unnatural.” Rudolf Steiner, a twentieth-century Western guru with a significant following in Central Europe, built his philosophy around “The Natural.” Among other things he did, he made sure that an enormous concrete building was erected—itself a monument to his theories—featuring practically no right angles. 3 Could a natural phenomenon produce a straight line? Undoubtedly yes; I can think of many examples, but I want to concentrate on natural growth in competition, which so far has been described as following an S-shape. The logistic function used in the one-to-one natural substitutions is such that if one divides the number of the “new” by the number of the “old” at any given time and plots this ratio on a logarithmic vertical scale, one gets a straight line. It is a mathematical transformation. The interest in doing this is to eliminate the need for computers and sophisticated fitting procedures when searching for “naturalness” in substitution processes. Consider the following hypothetical case. You are concerned about the new hamburger stand that opened recently across the street from yours. You worry that its guarantee of home delivery in less than ten minutes may not only cut into your business but put you out of it altogether. People may just decide to save the gas and order their sandwiches from wherever they happen to be. To make it easy, let us also suppose that the stand across the street has set up a public counting device, which advertises the number of hamburgers it has sold so far. 127
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PREDICTIONS - 10 Years Later Ten ye
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Copyright © 2002 by Theodore Modis
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CONTENTS Going West 53 Mesopotamia,
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CONTENTS 10. IF I CAN, I WANT 225 W
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PREFACE This book is about seeing t
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PROLOGUE The fisherman starting his
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PROLOGUE analogy between natural la
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PROLOGUE animal population and foll
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PROLOGUE stead; and those who belie
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1 Science and Foretelling A barman
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING prices,
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING the futu
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING Safety i
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING But exam
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING programm
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING terpreta
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING On the o
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING terms of
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING THE LAW
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING resolved
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING by hard
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2 Needles in a Haystack HOW MUCH OR
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK able to fi
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK LEARNING F
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK Intel’s
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK looks like
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK documentat
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK MESOPOTAMI
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK derstandin
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3. INANIMATE PRODUCTION LIKE ANIMAT
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT consumption d
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT compare the d
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT seems to puls
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT spikes stand
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT Marchetti fit
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT the predicted
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT according to
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT It is equally
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT Finally, ther
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT Ten Years Lat
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT having the th
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT The number fi
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9. REACHING THE CEILING EVERYWHERE
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Ten Years Later 9. REACHING THE CEI
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Ten Years Later 9. REACHING THE CEI
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10 If I Can, I Want Logistic functi
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT ability become
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT Christopher Co
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT The search for
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT look like an S
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT producing chao
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT First commerci
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT In addition to
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT Between two su
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT The state depi
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT to sustain one
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY announced i
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY The “natu
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY In 1975, as
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY The country
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY feedback me
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY States, rec
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY in 1991 pro
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY least four
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY United Stat
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY which would
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EPILOGUE • • • We are in Cent
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EPILOGUE Fads and media stories abo
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APPENDICES 273
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APPENDIX A The Predator-Prey Equati
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APPENDIX A the two varieties will b
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APPENDIX A By assigning weights to
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APPENDIX B As an example, let us co
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APPENDIX C Additional Figures THE N
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APPENDIX C POPULATIONS OF CARS GROW
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APPENDIX C RAILWAY NETWORKS GROW LI
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APPENDIX C GOTHIC CATHEDRALS APPEND
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APPENDIX C OIL PRODUCTION AND DISCO
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APPENDIX C ERNEST HEMINGWAY (1899-1
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APPENDIX C THE BIRTH RATE OF AMERIC
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APPENDIX C 296
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APPENDIX C WORLD WAR II FAVORED TUB
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APPENDIX C THE EXIT OF STEAM ENGINE
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APPENDIX C 302
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APPENDIX C THE DESTRUCTION OF THRES
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APPENDIX C WARS MAY INTERFERE WITH
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APPENDIX C COMPETITION BETWEEN TRAN
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APPENDIX C ANNUAL ENERGY CONSUMPTIO
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APPENDIX C THE GROWTH OF AIR TRAFFI
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APPENDIX C Annual registrations 6,0
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APPENDIX C POPULARIZED DEATHS HAVE
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NOTES AND SOURCES Prologue 1. Donel
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NOTES AND SOURCES the Law Followed
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NOTES AND SOURCES 4. For examples s
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NOTES AND SOURCES bile Road to Tech
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NOTES AND SOURCES 2. For a brief de
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NOTES AND SOURCES Appendix B: Expec
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Bagwell, my initia
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PREDICTIONS â 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute