PREDICTIONS â 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute

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Copyright © 2002 by Theodore Modis All rights reserved including the right of reproduction in whole or in part in any form. Produced by GROWTH DYNAMICS Via Selva 8, 6900 Massagno, Lugano, Switzerland Tel. 41-91-9212054; FAX 1-801-6506643 http://www.growth-dynamics.com
CONTENTS PREFACE 11 PROLOGUE 13 Spicy Talk and a Stimulating Meal 15 1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING 21 Invariants 26 Safety in Cars 27 Humans versus Machines 30 Do Animals All Die at the Same Age? 33 The Bell-Shaped Curve of the Life Cycle 36 The S-Curve of Cumulative Growth 37 The Law of Natural Growth 39 Controls on Rabbit Populations 40 Gauss for Statistics was Like Bach for Music—an Ingenious Forger 42 2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK 45 How Much Order Is There in “Random” Discoveries? 45 Learning From Success 49 Could You Take Aim at an Apple on Your Son’s Head? 49 A Real Case 50 The Industry Learning Curve 52 5
Page 2: PREDICTIONS - 10 Years Later Ten ye
Page 8 and 9: CONTENTS Going West 53 Mesopotamia,
Page 10 and 11: CONTENTS 10. IF I CAN, I WANT 225 W
Page 13 and 14: PREFACE This book is about seeing t
Page 15 and 16: PROLOGUE The fisherman starting his
Page 17 and 18: PROLOGUE analogy between natural la
Page 19 and 20: PROLOGUE animal population and foll
Page 21 and 22: PROLOGUE stead; and those who belie
Page 23 and 24: 1 Science and Foretelling A barman
Page 25 and 26: 1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING prices,
Page 27 and 28: 1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING the futu
Page 29 and 30: 1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING Safety i
Page 31 and 32: 1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING But exam
Page 33 and 34: 1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING programm
Page 35 and 36: 1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING terpreta
Page 37 and 38: 1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING On the o
Page 39 and 40: 1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING terms of
Page 41 and 42: 1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING THE LAW
Page 43 and 44: 1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING resolved
Page 45 and 46: 1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING by hard
Page 47 and 48: 2 Needles in a Haystack HOW MUCH OR
Page 49 and 50: 2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK able to fi
Page 51 and 52: 2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK LEARNING F
Page 53 and 54: 2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK Intel’s
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK documentat
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK MESOPOTAMI
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK derstandin
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3. INANIMATE PRODUCTION LIKE ANIMAT
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4. THE RISE AND FALL OF CREATIVITY
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5 Good Guys and Bad Guys Compete th
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5. GOOD GUYS AND BAD GUYS COMPETE T
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6 A Hard Fact of Life Natural growt
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE avoid wrong
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE one substitu
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE place in a n
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE DETERGENTS S
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE The percenta
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE During the l
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE Another inno
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE replacement.
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE soldiers opp
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE takes place
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7. COMPETITION IS THE CREATOR AND T
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT consumption d
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT compare the d
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT seems to puls
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT spikes stand
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT Marchetti fit
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT the predicted
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT according to
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT It is equally
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT Finally, ther
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT Ten Years Lat
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT having the th
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT The number fi
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9. REACHING THE CEILING EVERYWHERE
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Ten Years Later 9. REACHING THE CEI
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Ten Years Later 9. REACHING THE CEI
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10 If I Can, I Want Logistic functi
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT ability become
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT Christopher Co
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT The search for
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT look like an S
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT producing chao
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT First commerci
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT In addition to
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT Between two su
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT The state depi
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT to sustain one
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY announced i
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY The “natu
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY In 1975, as
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY The country
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY feedback me
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY States, rec
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY in 1991 pro
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY least four
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY United Stat
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY which would
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EPILOGUE • • • We are in Cent
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EPILOGUE Fads and media stories abo
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APPENDICES 273
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APPENDIX A The Predator-Prey Equati
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APPENDIX A the two varieties will b
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APPENDIX A By assigning weights to
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APPENDIX B As an example, let us co
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APPENDIX C Additional Figures THE N
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APPENDIX C POPULATIONS OF CARS GROW
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APPENDIX C RAILWAY NETWORKS GROW LI
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APPENDIX C GOTHIC CATHEDRALS APPEND
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APPENDIX C OIL PRODUCTION AND DISCO
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APPENDIX C ERNEST HEMINGWAY (1899-1
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APPENDIX C THE BIRTH RATE OF AMERIC
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APPENDIX C 296
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APPENDIX C WORLD WAR II FAVORED TUB
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APPENDIX C THE EXIT OF STEAM ENGINE
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APPENDIX C 302
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APPENDIX C THE DESTRUCTION OF THRES
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APPENDIX C WARS MAY INTERFERE WITH
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APPENDIX C COMPETITION BETWEEN TRAN
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APPENDIX C ANNUAL ENERGY CONSUMPTIO
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APPENDIX C THE GROWTH OF AIR TRAFFI
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APPENDIX C Annual registrations 6,0
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APPENDIX C POPULARIZED DEATHS HAVE
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NOTES AND SOURCES Prologue 1. Donel
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NOTES AND SOURCES the Law Followed
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NOTES AND SOURCES 4. For examples s
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NOTES AND SOURCES bile Road to Tech
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NOTES AND SOURCES 2. For a brief de
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NOTES AND SOURCES Appendix B: Expec
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Bagwell, my initia
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